George Kittle 2022 Prop Bets: Receiving Yards, TD Predictions

For the last four seasons, George Kittle has been one of the game’s elite tight ends in all facets. He consistently gets praise for his sheer dominance as a run blocker, and he set the record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end in 2018. 

That record has since been broken by Travis Kelce, but Kittle’s receiving ability has never been in question. He’s an absolute monster after the catch, barreling through defenders left and right with reckless abandon. His physicality and versatility helped propel the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2019 and made him one of Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite targets.

After three full seasons of catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo, Kittle will turn to the Niners’ new signal caller, Trey Lance. San Francisco figures to have somewhat of a new-look offense, but the star tight end will likely remain a focal point.

Kittle’s receiving yardage prop is currently set at 825.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook, while his touchdown total is listed at 5.5. Let’s dive into Kittle’s expectations and likelihood to go over or under his 2022 receiving props. 

George Kittle Prop Bets for 2022

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

How Many Receiving Yards will George Kittle Have in 2022?

Under 825.5 (-115)

Every year Kittle has played at least 14 games, he’s breezed by 825.5 receiving yards, but this will be his first attempt with Trey Lance under center. Lance was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and has been given the keys to the franchise, but we haven’t seen much of him yet.

One thing we know Lance does well is run the ball, and that doesn’t bode well for his receivers. The 49ers already ran the 25^th-fewest plays and passed at the 29^th-lowest rate last season, but that number might drop even more with Lance at the helm.

Kittle’s typically low aDOT and high YAC numbers are a result of quick and easy completions from his quarterback. He’s a beast with the ball in his hands, but Lance completed just 58% of his attempts last season in limited work compared to Jimmy Garoppolo’s 68%. He was a rookie, so we’ll cut him some slack, but some of that low completion percentage can be attributed to his propensity to chuck it deep.

17% of his pass attempts were deep passes last season (the league average is 11%). Kittle is capable of being a deep threat, but that is better suited for Brandon Aiyuk on the outside than it is for one of the game’s best YAC threats on the inside. Because Kittle plows through defenders like a maniac, he also presents the kind of injury risk that makes betting the over on season long props a bit scary. He’s missed 29% of his games over the last three seasons.

In a run-heavy offense with a new, unproven quarterback who loves to run and throw deep, I’m much more confident in taking the under on Kittle’s receiving yards, especially given his injury history. 

How Many Touchdown Receptions Will George Kittle Have in 2022?

Under 5.5 TD Receptions (-130)

I used a lot of the same logic to fade George Kittle’s receiving yards as I did for in Mark Andrews’ prop breakdown, but their paths diverge when it comes to touchdowns.

Kittle plays in a run-heavy offense just like Andrews does, but Kittle is nowhere near the red zone threat that Andrews is. In 2021, the 49ers ran the ball at the fifth highest rate inside the red zone. That may have contributed to Kittle ranking outside of the top-80 in red zone targets and outside the top-50 in end zone targets according to FTN’s advanced receiving stats.

This year, he’s still competing with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel for touchdowns, and Brandon Aiyuk has been getting rave reviews out of training camp, particularly about his chemistry with Lance. Lance’s legs also give Kyle Shanahan another weapon in his red zone playcalling arsenal. 

DraftKings has Lance’s passing touchdown prop listed at 21.5. If he threw for 21 touchdowns, Kittle would need a 29% share of the team’s receiving touchdowns to cash the over, something only three tight ends accomplished last season. All three – Mark Andrews, Hunter Henry and Pat Freiermuth – did it on teams with low passing touchdowns totals, but Henry did it on a team without an alpha wide receiver, Freiermuth did it in a pass-heavy offense and Andrews led his team in targets.

Kittle will likely play second fiddle to Deebo again in the passing game and the offense projects to be close to a 50-50 run-pass split. There’s just not enough volume here for me to feel comfortable betting over 5.5 touchdowns for a tight end who’s never been a great red zone threat. 

How to Bet George Kittle Props

If you are looking to bet on props like receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, FTNBets has all the tools to get you started. Sign up for a sportsbook account using our affiliate link and take a deep dive into all the different NFL futures markets that legal books offer. 

George Kittle’s 2022 receiving yards prop is set at 825.5 yards and the under has -115 odds. In this example, you would need to bet $110 that Kittle will have more than 825.5 receiving yards in order to make a $100 profit.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to view parlay payouts based on each leg’s odds and the amount of money wagered.