After an exciting main event at Paris between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa, the UFC returns home to Vegas to host the highly anticipated UFC 279. Headlining the event, UFC Legend Nate Diaz squares up against the newest rising star, “The Wolf” Khamzat Chimaev. Leading up to the main event, Tony Ferguson returns to the welterweight division and steps into the Octagon to fight “the Leech” Jingliang Li. 

 

In the third fight on the main card, “The trailblazer,” Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez face off in what should be one of the most exciting fights of the night. Last, but not least, to kick the main card off the always unpredictable Johnny Walker locks horns with “the Hulk” Ion Cutelaba. 

Below, I’ll break down the main card fights from a betting perspective and point out what I feel are the best bets for each contest. For prelims, I will do a brief breakdown followed by a best bet as well. All odds and bets placed will be from BetMGM

Chimaev vs. Diaz Odds

When Nate Diaz made his debut in 2004, Khamzat Chimaev was 10 years old, probably watching Nate on the Ultimate Fighter season five. Since the beginning, Diaz has always been bold and controversial, similar to his older brother Nick Diaz. Win or lose, Nate has never been in a boring fight. He uses boxing and jiu jitsu as his primary weapons when stepping into the Octagon. Currently on a two-fight losing streak, Nate sees this fight as his way out of the prison he calls the UFC. This fight has many in the MMA community feeling bad for Nate, and some have even called it an outright execution. Diaz has always been sharp on his feet, averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.43. Diaz doesn’t mind getting taken down, and he defends takedowns 40% of the time. This would be concerning when fighting an elite wrestler like Chimaev, but with 15 submission wins on his record, the Cesar Gracie black belt doesn’t seem too bothered. Suppose this fight happened a couple years ago when Nate was slightly less punch drunk. In that case, I’d give him a chance in this one, but considering the way he’s looked in his last two fights, and the fact that he has to drag fighters into deep waters to find a finish, I don’t think this matchup goes very far at all. Chimaev averages 7.89 significant strikes per minute, accurately landing at a 60% rate. He also averages 5:35 of fight time, with only one of his fights in his career going to a decision. Outside of his last fight against Gilbert Burns, Chimaev finished every one before the third round and even fought twice in the same month. From a betting perspective, Chimaev is a significant favorite sitting at -1000, and Nate is currently sitting at +700. It would be fun to take a stab at Nate finding a Hail Mary sub attempt at +1000, but personally, I will be betting this fight to end within two rounds. Conor McGregor may have taken everything Nate Diaz worked for, but Chimaev is about to take what’s left. 

Bet: Chimaev vs Diaz u1.5 Rds. +115 and u2.5 Rds. -190

Ferguson vs. Jingliang Li Odds

Another legend makes his way into the Octagon this weekend when Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson returns to the welterweight division against a powerful fighter from China, “the Leech” Jingliang Li. 1-4 in his last five, Tony Ferguson was once one of the most dominating champions the sport has ever witnessed. Ferguson has never been in a boring fight with 14 wins by KO, nine by submission and five by decision. Making his debut on the ultimate fighter, Ferguson made his bones when he beat Ramsey Njeim at the Ultimate Fighter finale and won a six-figure contract. Even though Ferguson fought at welterweight on the show, Tony went on to have a great career in the lightweight division. After winning his first two fights, he would taste defeat against Michael Johnson before going on a 12-fight win streak. After winning in 2019 against now-retired Donald Cerrone, Ferguson would return in 2020 to fight Justin Garthje in a fight that, in my opinion, changed his life. Since that fight, Tony has stepped into the ring three more times and has looked like a shell of himself. He was dominated thoroughly by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush and then sent to the shadow realm against Michael Chandler three months ago at UFC 274. Jingliang Li made his debut in 2014 and is also a veteran in the UFC, going 11-5 overall for the promotion. A powerful and big fighter, Li is well-rounded and capable of doing well wherever this fight goes. He doesn’t need much flash to his game, but his right hand surely does crack when it lands. With 15 wins on his record, Li has won nine fights by knockout, and most, if not all of those knockouts, with his right hand. Like Nate Diaz, I don’t see Tony doing much damage on the feet and will have to create scrambles and look for opportunities to grapple and find a submission. Jingliang may not have been able to knock out Tony early in his career. Still, I think we are witnessing a downward spiral for him. Tony currently sits as a +240 underdog, which is good value if you’re a huge fan, and Li sits as a -300 favorite. I wouldn’t recommend a moneyline bet on Li, as I think the line has been juiced already. Therefore, I would suggest taking Li to find a finish in the third round or winning by a judge’s decision. 

Bet: Jingliang Li in Rd. 3 or Dec. +140

 

Holland vs. Rodriguez Odds

Kevin Holland, aka the Trailblazer, steps into the Octagon to fight Daniel "D-rod" Rodriguez in the third fight on the main card at UFC 279. Holland is 2-2-1 in his last five contests, and anytime he steps into the Octagon, you can expect a lot of trash-talking and a fun fight. At 6'3" with an 81" reach, Holland has a significant advantage against Rodriguez, who is 6'1" with a 74" reach. Both fighters carry a lot of power and are also very accurate. Still, the volume belongs to Rodriguez, who averages 8.06 significant strikes per minute. Holland averages 3.90 significant strikes per minute but is slightly more precise, landing 54% of his strikes. Holland doesn't overwhelm opponents with strikes; instead, he likes to counter from range, which has led to a knockout 12 times in his career. He also uses his range to stun his opponent and finish with a submission, as he recently did against Tim Means. D-Rod is currently 4-1 over his last five fights and seems to be fighting with much confidence lately. The hard-hitting Rodriguez has never been finished in his career and is confident he can take whatever the Trailblazer brings to the Octagon. Since both fighters average less than one takedown per 15minutes, I don't see this fight hitting the mat unless someone is sent to the shadow realm. This fight is set to be a striking clinic, and truthfully outside of the main event, it is my favorite fight of the night. Holland opened up as a moderate favorite at -220 and currently sits at -200. D-rod opened as a +180 underdog and sits presently lower at +170. It's easy to think that this fight can end early, but considering the durability of both fighters and the fact that D-rod is not much of a submission threat, I see this fight going well for Holland. 

Bet: Kevin Holland in Rd. 3 or Dec. +150

Aldana vs. Chiasson Odds

In the second fight on the main card, two hard-hitting women face off in the featherweight division at UFC 279. Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson face off in what should be an exciting fight. Usually, when you speak about women’s MMA, you don’t often mention many finishes or knockouts. Yet, for these two women who have combined for 11 knockout victories in their careers, looking for a finish is not as far-fetched as it seems. Aldana is 3-2 in her last five fights, with two of those fights ending by way of knockout/stoppage. A tall fighter for her division, Aldana uses crisp boxing and averages 5.61 significant strikes per minute while defending 60% of strikes thrown her way. Very rarely does Aldana look for the takedown and instead keeps the fight standing where she has the advantage against most fighters. Aldana does boast an 80% takedown defensive rate. She will have to put it to the test against Chiasson, who averages 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and will for sure be looking to close the distance and take this fight to the ground. Both fighters have been stopped before, and for Macy, it happened recently in her career against Raquel Pennington when she was subbed. Before then, her only other loss as a pro was by split decision. On the other hand, Irene hasn’t been stopped since 2015, and her only losses in the UFC have been by decision. Usually in a matchup like this, I tend to lean toward the fighter who can wrestle. Even though Aldana has an 80% takedown defense, I still think that Chiasson will be able to find a takedown at some point and will make this fight closer than what the odds depict. Because I am torn between both women, I will go with my best bet, and that is for this fight to go the distance. Both women are durable, and if Chiasson can find the takedown, it will slow down this fight and make it a grind. 

Bet: Chiasson vs. Aldana FGTD -155

Walker vs. Cutelaba Odds

In the first fight on the main card, the UFC has scheduled one of the most chaotic fights of the night when Johnny Walker +170 faces off against “the Hulk” Ion Cutelaba -200. Known for his odd and sometimes downright scary face-offs, Cutelaba is 1-3-1 in his last five fights and looks to get back into the win column this weekend at UFC 279. Cutelaba uses his wrestling base to average 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. Cutelaba uses pressure to break his opponents on the ground and has found a finish in 12 of his 16 pro wins. Johnny Walker comes into this fight 1-4 in the last five fights and has been finished in two of those fights by knockout. Like his opponent, Walker has a lot of knockouts in his career and has won 15 out of 18 by knockout. Walker is an eccentric fighter who is very hard to train for because not many people move like him. At 6’6” and with an 82” reach, Walker knows how to use his range well but can get caught in a firefight and end up on the wrong end of a punch as he did recently against Jamal Hill. Cutelabas' issue is that his gas tank can be limited, and he goes full throttle from minute one instead of pacing himself. At 6’1” with a 75” reach, Cutelaba is at a disadvantage by a combined 10 inches when you compare height and reach. Even though he averages 4.81 significant strikes per minute, he absorbs almost the same amount. He has to use those strikes to get in on a takedown or survive a firefight. Cutelaba does not possess a good boxing game and gets sloppy with his punches, and at times leaves himself exposed to submissions or strikes, as he did recently against Ryan Spann, who subbed him, and Magomed Ankalaev, who knocked him out. Both fighters have vulnerable chins, but if Cutelaba can find a takedown and keep Walker on the ground, I can see this being a dominant win for Ion. Conversely, suppose Walker can keep Cutelaba at the end of his strikes and negate takedowns. In that case, he should be able to pick Ion apart and tire him out whenever he shoots for a takedown. From a betting perspective, I don’t trust Cutelaba enough to lay the chalk and instead will go with Johnny Walker to get the win here and cash in the dog spot. 

Bet: Johnny Walker ML +170

Dawodu vs. Erosa Odds

In the featured prelim of the night, Hakeem Dawodu faces off with Julian Erosa in the featherweight division. Both fighters are finishers, and high-volume strikers averaging over 5.5 significant strikes landed per minute. They also have a 50% striking accuracy rate and defend takedowns over 60% of the time. Where they differ, though, can be concerning for Erosa, as he absorbs 6.51 strikes per minute, which is four times more than Dawodu, who absorbs only 2.72 strikes per minute. This fight will be a good one, as Erosa will come forward looking to apply pressure and look for a finish. Erosa has 11 wins by KO/TKO and 12 by submission, and he will take on some damage to dish his own out. But never for a second should you count him out. Erosa can take this fight to the ground at any moment and find a sub, even after being stunned. Dawodu averages 0.00 takedowns per fight, and in a fight this close, I usually lean with the grappler. Dawodu is very strong and capable of defending takedowns, but if this fight goes into the third round 1-1 on the scorecards, then I’d like my chances with the grappler to get it to the ground and squeak out a win. From a betting perspective, I will bet this fight to go the distance and invest in the fighters' durability. 

Bet: Dawodu vs Erosa FGTD -145

Almeida vs. Turkalj Odds

Two newcomers step into the Octagon after punching their tickets to the big show on Dana White's contender series. Almeida was a +175 underdog in his fight on the contender series and scored five takedowns on his way to a rear-naked choke victory. Anton had a lot of opportunities to finish the fight on the contender series but failed to do so and won unanimously on the scorecards. It was a dominant performance, but his gas tank at times was a liability. Against an aggressive fighter like Almeida, he will have to manage the gas tank if he hopes to have an opportunity of catching his opponent. Almeida is  -700, and I don't plan on taking him straight up at those odds. Instead, I'll attack this fight from a prop perspective and take Almeida to find a finish inside the distance.  

Bet: Jalton Almeida by sub -141 

Tiuliulin vs. Pickett Odds

Jamie Pickett (-135) faces off against UFC newcomer Denis Tiuliulin (+110) in the middleweight division. Tiuliulin is fighting in his second UFC bout after being submitted in his debut by Aliaskhab Kizriev. He possesses power in his punches, but in the fight, he seemed tired after the first round. He was also dominated on the ground for most of the bout. Suppose Pickett decides to grapple early and stays away from chaos. In that case, I can see him dominating Tiuliulin and using his three-inch reach advantage to keep Denis at the end of his strikes. I don’t see this fight going to the judges, and I think Pickett wins in this spot. 

Bets: Pickett ML -135 / Pickett vs Tiuliulin FDGTD -108

Collier vs. Barnes Odds

This fight should be fun, as Jake Collier takes on Chris Barnett in the heavyweight division. Collier opened as a -350 and currently sits at -400, and Barnett opened at +275 and presently sits at +310. Personally, I am going to stay away from this fight, as I can't trust Collier enough to pull the trigger, and don't like Barnett enough to bet him as a dog. If there is a lean for this fight, it would be for it to go the distance, but personally, I will not be placing money here and will just sit back and enjoy the fight.

Bet: No Bet

Dumont vs. Wolf Odds

Norma Dumont welcomes Danyelle Wolf to the Octagon officially, after Wolf made her debut on the contender series back in 2020. Wolf was scheduled to fight again in 2021 against Felicia Spencer but had to withdraw for personal reasons. Wolf is back now in 2022 to make her debut once again and introduce herself to the UFC fans. Wolf has a height and reach advantage and boasts a 100% takedown defensive rate, which should come in handy against Dumont who averages 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. Personally, I won’t be betting this fight and instead will save my money, but if I had a gun to my head, I would go with Dumont who has more experience and should be able to get this to the mat and dominate Wolf. 

Bet: No Bet

Anheliger vs. Alateng Odds

In the third night fight, Chad Anheliger (+145) squares off against Heili Alateng (-175) in the bantamweight division. This fight will be a grind for two fighters with similar styles and power, and the odds, in my opinion, are priced correctly. Chad is still early in his UfC career, and this matchup against the more experienced Alateng doesn’t seem good for him. Alateng should be able to get this fight to the ground. Even if Chad happens to stand back up, Alateng should be able to evade any trouble and tire as well as break Anheliger, who doesn’t seem to do much once his gas tank runs empty. From a betting perspective, I will take this fight to go the distance and Alateng to win by decision.

Bets: Heili Alateng by points +125 / Alateng vs Anheliger FGTD -155

Reed vs. Martinez Odds

Elise Reed (+135) faces off against Melissa Martinez (-165) in the night's second fight at UFC 279. As much as I would love to find an angle to attack this fight, I just couldn't pull the trigger. For me, this will be another spot where I save my money and fade this fight. I don't trust either fighter. Martinez may be a good piece for fantasy owners, but as a bet, I just can't do it.

Bet: No Bet

Weeks vs. Lainesse Odds

In the first fight of the night, powerhouse Yohan Lainesse (+102) squares up against Darian Weeks, who is stepping in for Miguel Baeza on short notice after Baeza withdrew from the fight with an injury. On one end, you have Weeks, who averages 15 minutes of fight time. In the other corner, we have Lainesse, who averages just over a round at 5:20s. Both fighters average over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and really look to make their fights a grind. Weeks is only 5-2 in his pro career but had an extensive amateur career that has helped him look more than ready when stepping up against the best in the world. Lainesse is 8-1-0 and goes into fights to finish and nothing more. From a betting perspective, I will side with this fight over 1.5 rounds. If there is a finish, it will come late in the contest. Weeks is very durable and has faced power punchers in the past. Even if he's dominated in this matchup, I don't think he will be finished early in the fight and will make it competitive.

Bets: Weeks vs Lainesse o1.5 -175 / Weeks vs Lainesse FGTD +145