Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-110) after it opened @ 85.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to garner 19.0 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Jonathan Taylor has been given 79.4% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Jonathan Taylor has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (86.0) this season than he did last season (116.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
