Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-130).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to notch 6.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 27.9% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Darnell Mooney’s possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.7% to 69.5%.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
- Darnell Mooney has put up quite a few less air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
