Ratcliffe's Super Bowl Betting Picks

Jeff Ratcliffe

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Super Bowl betting is one of the best times of the year to get your money in play. Not only do we get more markets in terms of Super Bowl props, but we also tend to get more favorable conditions in terms of Super Bowl odds given the sheer volume of casual money in play. Simply put, casual bettors wager significantly more on the Super Bowl than at any other point in the NFL season.

All that extra action creates an edge for the sharp player, but we can’t expect to simply show up and place all of our Super Bowl wagers on one ticket and call it a day. The betting markets evolve significantly in the roughly two-week span from Conference Championship weekend until the Super Bowl kicks off.

To help make smarter bets, I’m going to share with you my betting ticket in the run up to the Super Bowl. I’ll be adding to this post each time I find new wagers that provide a favorable edge, so be sure to bookmark this page and return daily for new Super Bowl best bets. If you want to see other Super Bowl betting picks, be sure to check out our staff’s NFL betting picks and our player props tool. Promo code “RATPACK” gets you 20% off on an FTN Bets subscription.

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Wednesday (2/1/23)

Travis Kelce: Anytime Touchdown

(-107, Unibet)

Travis Kelce is the favorite to score in this game, and for good reason. But there’s still a bit of an edge at these odds. Elsewhere, you’ll see him at -125 or even -130. Currently, projections have Kelce with a 56% chance of scoring. These odds come with an implied probability of 51.7%, which gives us a solid edge on the book.

Kenneth Gainwell: Anytime Touchdown

(+400, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This one is very interesting considering the fact that it’s as low as +200. At these odds, we have an implied probability of 20% for Kenneth Gainwell to score. That’s significantly below the 33% chance he has to score according to our projections. Gainwell’s usage has shot up during the playoffs with 13 touches against the Giants and 16 against the 49ers.

Kenneth Gainwell: Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)

While we’re at it, we should also get some action on Gainwell’s rushing prop. As I mentioned above, his usage has significantly increased over the past two games, and he’s blown right past this line in each of his last three games.

Jalen Hurts: Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Full disclosure, I fully expect this line to climb in the coming days as the casual bettors hammer the over. But there’s already enough meat on the bone to get an early wager in on the under. Jalen Hurts has not been running anywhere near as effectively since his late-season shoulder injury. In fact, he has not topped 40 rushing yards in the three games since his return. Projections currently have him at 43.3 rushing yards.

Dallas Goedert: Over 45.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Most books have this a yard higher, so we’ll take that extra cushion. Even so, he projects out well over this line at 54.3 yards. Sure, Dallas Goedert didn’t top this number against a tough 49ers defense last week, but he did go over in each of his previous two games. He also has at least five catches in each of his last three games.

Monday (2/6/23)

Travis Kelce: MVP

(+1600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Both quarterbacks are heavy favorites to win this award, but honestly there’s minimal value in grabbing either one of them at +130. Kelce gives us over 10 times that value and is a legit candidate to win the award. Better yet, FanDuel is offering much better odds than most books where Kelce is hovering in the +1200 range.