The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups in the middle of conference play. Below is my favorite bet for Saturday’s slate. 

 

Indiana vs. Purdue

(Line: Indiana pk, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’ve been waiting for the best time to sell this highly rated Purdue squad, and a trip to Assembly Hall sets up to be the perfect spot. Matt Painter has done a fantastic job so far this season with 22-1 Purdue, playing mainly through the most dominant player in the country Zach Edey inside and getting the most out of his young backcourt of Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith.

The Hoosiers come into this game slowly getting healthier after hitting a very rough patch in conference play where they lost three straight after losing a few key starters to injury. Zach Edey is pretty much unstoppable, but Indiana does have one of the better interior defenses in the league behind Race Thompson and Trayce Jackson Davis ranking 20th nationally in 2pt FG% and 73rd in defensive rebounding rate. Indiana typically doesn’t double the post but my assumption is that they will give Race Thompson the Edey assignment and leave TJD to roam as a help defender to help slow him down. Yet, defensively where the Hoosiers can really make life hard on Purdue is on the perimeter with their pressure defense. The Hoosiers force the highest isolation rate in the Big Ten and that should really both this young Boilermaker backcourt. Offensively, Purdue plays one of the lowest drop coverages off the pick and roll in the country which is where Indiana needs freshman Jalen Hood Schifino to shine. Phenom Trayce Jackson Davis should be limited a bit by Edey’s presence, but Hood Schifino will be given a ton of room to work off the pick and roll and if he’s making the right decisions, Indiana should find a ton of success offensively. Assembly Hall is one of the best home court advantages in the country and the place should be extra amped today with a shot at the best team in the conference. Maybe we even get a home whistle against Edey early. I was hoping for a better number but I’ve been waiting for this spot to fade Purdue’s shaky backcourt and all aligns to this one.

The Pick

Indiana pk