In this article, I’ll use the Strikeout Model to sift through the pitching options on DraftKings tonight. We’ll discuss the threshold probabilities and how they combine with projected ownership to allow us to consistently make +EV decisions at the starting pitcher position.

Hopefully trade news doesn’t blow up any of the following analysis before or after it goes live.

Pitchers to play

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

The model has very little separation between Lance Lynn and Corbin Burnes, but a ton of separation between them and the rest of the pitching pool. If you need to favor one of them, the model seems to favor Burnes, given a DK projection of 24.5 to 22.5, a K projection of 8.6 to 7.9, and...

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