The PGA Tour is heading back to Texas for this week's tournament, the AT&T Byron Nelson. The tournament will be played for the first time at TPC Craig Ranch, so with no historical data we will make our best-educated guess at how the course might play but a majority of modeling will be done using simply golfers baseline ratings.
Talor Gooch +100 (vs. Doug Ghim) (tie is a loss)
I am pretty high on Gooch this week compared to the market so when I saw this matchup, I had a feeling I would find value when I ran some simulations on it, and low and behold, I did make Gooch the favorite. Both golfers have been playing well of late, with Ghim having the edge in ball striking, but he can't make a putt to save his life. Long term, they statistically are similar as well but again, Gooch is the superior golfer on the greens. I know this seems like a wild concept to be referencing putting, but it is something that a golfer does on every hole. When you look long term at the consistency, I think it's fair to use it in projecting a golfer's future performance. It has been a serious problem for Ghim and a source of gaining on the field for Gooch, which can be a lovely weapon when matched with his excellent iron play.
Luke List -110 (vs Keith Mitchell) (tie is a loss)
I thought I was less bullish on Luke List but this line stood out. Mitchell's OTT game could allow him to gain on the field here, but List is no slouch in that category either, so I'm not worried about course fit benefitting Mitchell over List. The problem for Mitchell is that he will struggle to match List's approach and short game and if he is to beat List, it will be due to how they both perform on the putting surface. I believe List's far superior tee-to-green game gives him a large enough leg up to overcome his struggles on the green. Hopefully, his two putts are resulting in pars and not bogeys.
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