The men's U.S. Open at Torrey Pines is just around the corner, so I’ve decided to take a look at Tipico Sportsbook’s current U.S. Open outright market.
Although the USGA will make changes to the course, Torrey Pines is a familiar stop. Yearly, the course hosts the Farmers Insurance Open and also was the site of the famous 2008 U.S. Open where Tiger Woods beat Rocco Mediate in an 18-hole Monday playoff.
Torrey Pines has a north and south course, both of which are used for the Farmers Insurance Open but only the South Course will be used for the U.S. Open. The course is a par 72 and can stretch as much as 7,700 yards. It is a brute, where distance will be rewarded, perhaps even more so than usual if the USGA lets the rough grow like they typically do.
Here are some of my favorite bets of the tournament on Tipico Sportsbook.
Tony Finau (+4,000)
Scrolling through the early market, the first number that jumped out was Tony Finau sitting at 40/1. The field is not 100% complete at the time of this writing, but it would change drastically from what I used to run my numbers. I have Finau at 29/1, with a solid underlying talent score plus a course that should suit his game makes him a contender at the US Open. Looking through his history on the South Course, he has played it quite well compared to the field and has one of the best ratings at this course over the last five years. As we know, the elephant in the room has been his inability to close out tournaments.
In his defense; golf is hard. Sure, he has blown up in tense moments when he’s been in solid positions, but he has also gone out and played well in contention and just simply been beaten. You can’t play defense in golf, sometimes your opponent just outshines you even if you played well enough to win more often than not.
I tend to not get stuck on this too much though. A lot of golfers struggle to win, and then they win. I bet on a lot of golfers who have reputations of not closing or being winners, as you can often get solid prices on them due to these narratives that build over time.
At the end of the day, Finau’s true skill, current form and course fit all suggest, to me, he’s undervalued at +4,000 and worth adding to your US Open portfolio.
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