The Sentry Tournament of Champions kicks off the 2022 calendar year for the PGA Tour, with all of 2021’s winners showing up in Hawaii except for Rory McIlroy. One of the most fun aspects of betting on golf is the weekly opportunity to find edges all the way down the odds boards trying to pick winners.
This week, I have narrowed down two longshots that I think the market is not giving a fair glance at for taking the trophy on Sunday.
PGA Betting Picks This Week
Below, we take a look at a few golfers who could pay off as our favorite longshot bets of the week.
Longshots are a bit lower for a tournament with a field of only 39 golfers, so this week my longshot will be Seamus Power at 70/1 on DraftKings. Power is coming off a career-best year, finally getting his first victory (Barbasol) and finishing the year strong, making nine straight cuts. He carried this over into the fall-swing, adding three more T20s to his resume, with a strong fourth place to finish his year at The RSM Classic. Much of his game remained consistent and he improved dramatically with his approach play. We saw the irons stay hot and although this tournament isn’t often won by first-timers, the 70/1 number is too large for a golfer playing the way he was to end the season. I think he should be closer to 40/1 this week.
Dahmen is the next golfer who could be worth a look near the bottom of the odds board. He is currently available at 120/1 on FanDuel, and I believe he should be at 95/1. Again, another knock on a guy who hasn’t played this tournament before, but I think the most limiting factor to him winning would be his putting, not lack of course history. His ball-striking was excellent in 2021 and carried into the fall-swing as well. Let’s hope the high green-in-regulation numbers at Kapalua mean Dahmen won’t have to chip much, and he can avoid another weakness in his game. Again, we’re chasing magic here, but his play would suggest he has a better chance to win than the market suggests.
Bryan DeCorte, better known as Axis, is a PGA & Euro golf analyst for FTN. Axis has been deep diving golf stats for 5+ years and before joining FTN he was a part of Fantasy Golf Bag. He specializes in 72-hole match up betting and Euro Tour DFS.