The NFL season has kicked off, and the first full Sunday of action is upon us. The FanDuel Sportsbook has a few mispriced lines that I am looking to play against.
I spent the evening scouring the online sport books for the biggest differences between our projections at FTNDaily and the prop number that the books offered. After that, I plugged those players into the free FTNBets Prop Shop Tool and found the best price for each. You can view all of my plays in the NFL Bet Tracker, as well as all the plays of all our staff and subscribers at FTNBets who want to input and track those things.
My three favorite prop bets at FanDuel for NFL Week 1
With the running game now in shambles after injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, I think this passing prop is way too low. His best playmakers are wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown. Both are finally healthy. He will also have his favorite weapon in Mark Andrews to lean on. They may not want to rely on Lamar Jackson slinging it around, but until they get RB reinforcements, he might have to.
We project Terry McLaurin for 8 yards over this number, but more importantly without Curtis Samuel he is going to have to be the main weapon through the air. Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been shy about taking shots down the field, which also gives me faith McLaurin can rack up a bunch of yards on a long catch or two. He should end up with a handful of catches to go along with the one or two deep shots and could easily blow by this number Sunday.
Tyrod Taylor is not a good passing QB, but who else is he going to throw to? We project Brandin Cooks for more than 7 targets. If they are trailing in this game, that is likely on the low side. Now, Taylor is not an accurate QB, so it may take 9 targets for Cooks to get 5 catches, but he has torched this defense before. Cooks has the home-run ability to take any catch to the house and get a big chunk of this yardage on one play. I’m hoping he does too, because he might only have 4-5 catchable balls thrown his way, even if he does end up at 8-10 targets.