The NFL Draft is this week and while the numbers moved on my first NFL Draft long-shot bets article there are still some valuable numbers out there to take advantage of. Yes the Jaycee Horn first defender prop is down from +1000 to +350 and the Titans are now just +550 to go defensive line instead of +800, but just because we are sitting on tickets with great closing line value doesn't mean we stop hunting for value. The NFL draft is the most variance-based sports betting opportunity of the year. One domino falls and the entire landscape can change, one surprise pick and a player falls further than expected. These outcomes are very often not lined properly and taking advantage of as many positive expected value outcomes is a key to success. Think of long shots like building a portfolio, you want some long shots, but you don't want to rely on just one outcome, you want multiple where if just one pays off you are profitable and if two or more do you are bringing in the big bucks.
First what? Second, thank you. So before we get into the odds of this, let's break down why the odds are broken and set to be taken advantage of. Najee Harris currently sits between -150 and -170 to be the first running back taken with his player prop number dropping from 29.5 to 25.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. All across the industry, he is connected to the Steelers are 24 and is the favorite to be the first back off the board. The tough domino you need to fall is Williams before Etienne, but currently, Williams is +157 on DraftKings to go ahead of Etienne. Personally, I think Etienne will go ahead of him, but the value here is tremendous. If Williams does go second, Etienne would be a near-lock to be the third running back off the board with a player prop number of 47 spots higher than the next closest running back in Trey Sermon (33.5-80.5). It is safe to conservatively line him at -1,000 to be next running back off the board in the scenario. If we look at a parlay calculator and input odds of -150, +157, -1000, we have a parlay combination of +370, yet we get +2,900. This is a bet you take all day long even if you make Williams closer to +400 and Harris at even money, you would still have a parlay of +1,000. This ticket is simply mispriced at a 3.3% implied probability.
Based on everything I am hearing and seeing, it looks like Ja'Marr Chase is going to be the pick at 5, and Miami is dead set on taking another weapon (Waddle or Smith) or trading back. Both the Dolphins and Lions could be open for business to trade back, and there have been growing rumblings that teams may trade up for a non-QB. The player who makes the most sense is Penei Sewell, who former teammate Justin Herbert has been campaigning for. The Chargers are favored to draft an offensive lineman and have prioritized the position all offseason. If Sewell is on the board at 6 or 7, the Chargers will be on the phone checking on the price. I don’t know if they end up pulling the trigger, but at 11-1, the chances are better than the 8.3% implied probability.
Patrick Surtain II drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles
Everyone is assuming Surtain goes to the Cowboys and while I do think that is his likeliest of landing spots, the Eagles could easily end up with Surtain instead of the most often mocked Jaycee Horn. This is simply embracing the variance that is the NFL draft. What if the Cowboys like Horn? What if the Eagles love Surtain and want to jump to 9 to get him? There are too many scenarios for the CB needy Eagles to land Surtain, making +900 is excellent value