Draft day is finally here. It has been a long road, but it is in fact finally here. No new information should come out prior to the draft and what does is likely smoke. It’s time for my final mock draft of what I think is going to happen on the day of the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Much like Lawrence, Wilson to the Jets is a lock, sitting at -5000. I would much rather get the 1% return on Lawrence than the 2% return on Wilson — Wilson is written in pen, but Lawrence is written in blood.
Anyone else just excited for them to make this pick? Lance is currently +300 to be the pick with Mac Jones being the heavy favorite. It could easily be Jones, but I will go with my gut and take Lance. All the betting value at this point is gone from this pick.
Both Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN have reported the Falcons have made up their mind and are taking Kyle Pitts. He sits at -205 to go under 4.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, amazed the line hasn't moved more after this report.
Chase is as high as -200 to be the fifth overall pick in the draft and has seen steam that past two weeks that suggests he is locked into the five spot with the Bengals. The best of the betting numbers are long gone.
Waddle is said to have passed Smith as the favorite weapon of Miami and his player prop line has dropped from 11.5 to 9.5 the past two days. He down to just +175 to be a Dolphin, so the betting value is gone. If you want to get the best possible line, he is -110 on BetMGM to be a top-10 pick as they forgot to adjust that line despite moving him to O/U 9.5
7. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade up with Detroit)
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Chargers have said they feel they are an offensive tackle away from being a real contender, and Justin Herbert has been campaigning for Sewell all offseason. The Chargers have dropped from +1100 to +650 in the last week to be the team that lands Sewell. I feel like seven is the most likely pick to be traded in the top 10 as the Lions just invested the second-most resources in the NFL into their analytics department.
8. Carolina Panthers
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Did you really think I wouldn't have Horn as the first defender? Once sitting at +1000, Horn is now just +190 to be the first defender drafted. I think this pick comes down to Horn or Rashawn Slater.
9. Denver Broncos
Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
On FOX Bet, it’s between the Panthers and Broncos as Slater’s most likely landing spot. If Slater goes at 8 instead of Horn, I think Horn goes here.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
With Horn off the board, this might be the easiest pick of the mock. Unless both go ahead of the Cowboys, one of Horn or Surtain will play in Jerry world.
Smith is the betting favorite to be the pick and matches Dave Gettleman’s style of wanting great football players and ignoring a lot of other factors. Smith would give the Giants a top five set of weapons in the NFL.
This is the steal of the draft, as the Patriots have the second-best quarterback fall into their lap. The betting line on DraftKings Sportsbook now has the Patriots as the most likely team to land Fields.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
The Cardinals may get aggressive and try to move up for a corner or they may look to take Micah Parsons, but Newsome would be a massive add to this team. I still really like his under 24.5 line.
2021 NFL Draft — Picks 17-32
17. Oakland Raiders
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
This is a dream scenario for the Raiders, who need to put resources into their offensive line. This is likely Darrisaw’s floor.
18. Miami Dolphins
Kwity Paye, Edge. Michigan
The Dolphins just miss on Darrisaw and Vera-Tucker and add a talented edge defender.
19. Washington Football Team
Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
This is the shocker of the draft, as Davis ends up as the first linebacker drafted, currently +1000 on DraftKings. He is going to go higher than people expect, and Parsons could easily slip with his off-field issues.
The league is said to be in love with him and I expect him to go in this range. Eagles add a much-needed playmaker.
21. Indianapolis Colts
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
The Colts have built their team in the trenches and need to replace Anthony Costonzo. Jenkins would be a home-run pick here for them — per the odds, they are most likely to take an offensive lineman.
22. Tennessee Titans
Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
The team that was 31st in pressure rate last season needs help getting after the passer and the top four receivers and top three corners are all gone. Still a solid bet they go defensive line at +500, though.
Bateman would be a perfect complement to Davante Adams, and the Packers jump multiple teams that could be looking to add weapons. The Jets’ targets are gone here, so they take the value of the trade back.
The Bucs have caught some steam dropping from +800 to +550 to draft a running back. This team returns all 22 starters without any major needs, and all of their backs have contracts that expire next year. Would shock a lot of people, but I think it could happen.
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.