Every day, more and more NFL season props come out on different sportsbooks as we continue to inch closer and closer to the NFL season. Oh, how we miss you Sundays, come back to us! Until then, however, we will continue to try and take advantage of lines and put ourselves in as many positive expected value spots as possible. Here are three lines that stand out to me as good bets to make.
Only the Baltimore Ravens blitzed more than the Miami Dolphins last year, who made a serious effort to constantly disrupt the passer. Per our defensive line tool, the Dolphins blitzed the quarterback on 40.6% of pass plays (second) but only got pressure on 23.5% of dropbacks (13th). They were missing a dominant pass rusher, so they elected to draft Jaelan Phillips as the first pass rusher off the board. A freak athlete who will be put in plenty of one-on-one situations, Phillips just needs to perform on similar levels to Kyle Van Noy and Andrew Van Ginkel, who had 5.5 and 6 sacks last season for the Dolphins, without the extra game. Van Ginkel managed to finish with 5.5 sacks despite posting just the 63rd best win rate in football, so in this defense, Phillips needs to be just average to hit this number.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Julio Jones currently sits at 7 touchdowns, so 5.5 sure feels like a gift. Ryan Tannehill’s current line is 28.5 - so if we say a safe median projection for him is 28, we need Julio Jones to catch 21% of Tannehill’s touchdowns in order to clear this number. After Julio and A.J. Brown, there aren't many other players to score touchdowns for the Titans through the air with Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis both on new teams. He gets a major improvement in the red zone with Tannehill, as well, who completed 65.3% of his passes in the red zone compared to Matt Ryan’s abysmal 53.5%. We have given Julio Jones crap for not getting in the endzone for so long, even so, he has gone over 5.5 touchdowns in six of the last eight years, and we have never looked at Matt Ryan as the culprit. Last year, per our endzone tool, Calvin Ridley finished with the second most endzone targets (19) but the 26th most endzone touchdowns (4). Give me Jones over 5.5 TDs this season.
Per Derek Brown’s stats to know before you draft piece, Kyler Murray was seventh in the league in screen passes while Rondale Moore saw 39.3% of his college receptions behind the line of scrimmage. “In 2018 among all college-wide receivers with 35 or more targets, Moore ranked 37th in yards after the catch per reception (7.8), tied with Brandon Aiyuk.” Moore could be the missing piece to the horizontal raid that is the Arizona Cardinals and fits perfectly into that underneath slot role left behind by Larry Fitzgerald. Our own Jeff Ratcliffe, known for his love of unders, projects for Rondale Moore to go over 500 yards in his All 32 series as well.
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.