While some books continue to be cautious releasing lines for the 2021 NFL season, FOX Bet released every quarterback season passing prop, and there are plenty of values to be had. When lines come out early, there is no market to compare them to, but using our projections, historical data and a little common sense it is easy to spot values.
There is disrespect, and there is whatever this line is for Lamar Jackson. In order for Jackson to throw for over 3,055.5 yards he needs to average 179.5 passing yards per game — a number he has gone over in 65% of his starts in the last two years. While yes, Jackson is a running quarterback, he has never missed a game due to injury in his career, missing one due to rest and one due to COVID-19. He is likely able to play the entire season and this number is far too low. FTN’s Projections agree, projecting him to throw for 3,376 yards. This is also the most talented group of receivers Jackson has ever thrown to after adding Rashod Bateman in the draft’s first round and Sammy Watkins in free agency, adding to Jackson’s weekly passing upside. He goes over this number far more often than he goes under it, and when other books drop lines I think we will see lines closer to 3,200, which gives us excellent value or a middle opportunity.
FTN projections have Stafford projected for 4,788 passing yards this season, a discrepancy of 438 yards. Stafford goes from an abysmal Lions team to a Rams team loaded with talent. He loves to take shows down the field — he averaged 8.6 air yards per attempt last year, the fourth most in football. This is a major upgrade from Jared Goff, who averaged just 6.3 air yards per attempt, 34th. Unlocking the deep ball can do wonders for this Rams offense, which is loaded with receiver talent. The group of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell is one of the league’s deepest receiving corps. Prior to last season, Goff eclipsed this number in back-to-back seasons in just 16 games — this year they have a quarterback they felt was such an upgrade they included an extra first just to get rid of Goff. Stafford has massive passing yardage potential this year.
This is another number our projections just think is way off — FTN has Allen projected for 4,574 passing yards, or 444 more than his current line. Allen took a massive step forward last season after the Bills traded for Stefon Diggs, finishing with 4,544 yards and seeing his completion percentage jump 11 points to 69.2%. Allen could regress and still hit this number fairly easily from the passing volume alone for the Bills. Last year he finished sixth in pass attempts and third in total air yards — throwing often and going down the field. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and 8.5 air yards per attempt both of which were top seven in the league. He plays with one of the best receiver corps in the league in Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders. Already finishing with the fourth-most completions of 20-plus yards down the field, another year of his chemistry with Diggs should allow for Allen to comfortably go over this number.