Tuesday, I wrote up three player props on unders for Denzel Mims, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift. Both Mims’ and Everett’s totals have dropped 50 yards, and Swift now has more juice on the under. Getting closing line value is a great way to ensure a strong futures portfolio heading into the season, it also is a great reminder that if you see something you like you need to act quickly. The market is constantly moving, and something you like today may not be there tomorrow.
Two days ago, our own Matt Freedman wrote that he liked Alvin Kamara to rush for under 975.5 yards since he hadn’t gone over that number since high school — today, that number sits at 925.5. While that under is still bettable, the value is sucked out of the number as an easy under bet. Every day, I am scouring the market for my favorite plays to add to my portfolio on the FTN Bet Tracker.
Here are a few more player props whose value stand out to me; hurry and grab them before they are gone.
Bet these NFL player props
Here is a look at some of my favorite betting props Wednesday.
Last season, Gesicki caught 53 of 85 targets for 703 yards. He saw 15% of his team’s targets and a whopping 24% of the air yards to barely go over 685 yards. Yes, the NFL season has an extra game this year, but dominating air yards the way he did is going to be a difficult task to repeat. The Dolphins signed Will Fuller in the offseason, who, despite playing four fewer games, had more air yards than Gesicki last year and should take some of that vertical role. The other big concern is that they used the sixth overall pick on Jaylen Waddle to run out of the slot. While Gesicki is listed as a tight end, the only blocking he does is on social media platforms. Gesicki played 80% of his snaps in the slot last year, essentially starting as a receiver. Now the Dolphins bring in two extremely talented receivers, including one who will play in the slot. Gesicki’s snap rate is going to drop, his air yard share will as well. That is a tough combination to overcome to outperform last year, even with an extra game. Give me under on 685.5 yards and FTN projections agree with his median outcome of 568 receiving yards.
Finally, an over bet after writing up four straight unders. Tuesday, I talked about how Denzel Mims had a horrible line, currently set to be the No. 5 wide receiver for the Jets. DraftKings overprojecting Mims led to them underprojecting Davis, who is unlikely to come off the field and projects as the top receiver for the team. FTN has him projected for 893 yards, and I expect him to lead the team in target share. Davis is coming off an incredibly efficient season where he finished fourth in yards per route run, eighth in yards per target and 21st in yards per reception. Last year, as the second option in a run-first offense, he finished with 984 yards. Now, he will be the top option for a team playing from behind, making the over the value play here.
I wrote this prop up months ago, but I am going back to the well and adding a second unit. Smith has jumped to 935.5 receiving yards on both DraftKings and FOX Bet, and BetMGM is hanging out a bad line that we should take advantage of.
“The competition for Smith to step in on day one and be the top target in this offense is very light. Zach Ertz is a shell of himself, Dallas Goedert isn't going to command 30% of the targets, Jalen Reagor struggled early, and the rest of the cupboard is bare. If we conservatively estimate 17% of the target share and put a minimum target of 60 (account for injuries) on the FTN air yards tool, we have a player pool of 51 people from 2020, and 42 of those receivers went for over 750.5 yards. Smith’s prop number should be closer to 900 than 700, and we are getting a discount because people are worried about his size. I have no concerns about his ability to translate an all-time great college season into a productive rookie year.”
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.