Every Monday, Thursday and Sunday of the NFL season, I will be writing up my favorite same-game parlays for that day’s action. I will be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker as soon as I place them, so if you want to ensure you always have the best lines to tail, head over to where you can find all of my picks along with the rest of the FTN sharps.
Why bet same-game parlays?
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability is 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out, and picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren't trying to tell two different stories.
Every Monday and Thursday, I will write up my favorite same-game parlays — one with reasonable odds, maybe one with longer odds, and when I'm feeling good about it, one or two true longshots that hit and let you tell your significant other “We are going on vacation!”
While the Saints have been good against the deep ball this season, the one area they have struggled with is the deep middle of the field. They have allowed 10 targets per game to slot receivers this season, and two of the seven deep passes completed against them this season have gone for touchdowns. The Seahawks have an obvious downgrade in the passing game with Geno Smith replacing Russell Wilson, but it also gives us a discount on Tyler Lockett. Last week, Lockett finished with two catches for 35 yards but did see seven targets and 46% of his team’s air yards. He has three touchdowns this season and all three have come on big plays — all three have been on plays of 35 or more yards. In other words, if he is able to get in the end zone he should breeze past his yardage total. While adding the Seahawks moneyline into this parlay will make some nervous, I think the Saints are an overrated team. They beat up a Packers team that did not come to play, but the Saints have looked mediocre the entire season beyond that, losing to both the Panthers and Giants while beating Washington and the Patriots. The Seahawks at home, at night, always seem to come to play. Last season they were 7-2 straight up at home, and I think their number at +175 is inflated.
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.