Every Monday, Thursday and Sunday of the NFL season, I will be writing up my favorite same-game parlays for that day’s action. I will be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker as soon as I place them, so if you want to ensure you always have the best lines to tail, head over to where you can find all of my picks along with the rest of the FTN sharps.
Why bet same-game parlays?
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability is 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out, and picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren't trying to tell two different stories.
Every week I will write up my favorite same-game parlays — one with reasonable odds, one with longer odds, and when I'm feeling good about it, one true longshot that hits and lets you tell your significant other “We are going on vacation!”
Same Game Parlay Picks for Tonight
Here are my picks for Monday, Sept. 20.
Davante Adams starts hot, Marquez Valdes-Scantling comes up big
Adams played in 14 games last season and managed to score first in seven of them, first for the Packers in eight. Arguably the league's best receiver, Adams uses and abuses defenses near the goal line with the Packers finding creative ways to get him in the end zone, using motion to get him a clean release and easy touchdown. While first touchdowns are always difficult to predict, there is enough value in this number given his history to add to a simple player parlay for 33-1 odds. That player is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has certified himself as the Packers’ No. 2 receiver. Last week, MVS finished with a meager three catches for 17 yards, but he saw eight targets for 156 air yards with a ridiculous average depth of target of 19.5 yards. He needs to come down with one deep shot and get behind the Lions defense for us to win this bet if Adams scores first, as he has so many times before. This downfield role is nothing new for Valdes-Scantling either, as he led all receivers in aDOT last year (min. 50 targets). The Lions lost Jeffrey Okudah after Week 1 and have one of the worst secondaries it all of football. Valdes-Scantling should see mostly A.J. Parker and Amani Oruwariye, who both will be competing with his 4.37 speed, as both are 4.5 guys.
The Lions were a bottom-five run team last season, and while they added more upfront in the draft, if Week 1 was any indication, it wasn’t enough. Aaron Jones should have his way with the Lions on the ground, breaking off a few big runs and doing enough to get over the 68.5 rushing yards while finding his way into the end zone. The Packers are 11.5-point home favorites here, so the script sets up nicely for him as well, as the Detroit running backs in this parlay. D'Andre Swift was targeted at the second-highest rate of any running back last year. The Lions should trail throughout in this one and be forced to air it out against a Packers defense that was bottom-five in DVOA covering running backs. There will be no Tyrell Williams or the long gone Breshad Perriman in this game for the Lions, the two players who were projected to be WRs 1 and 2 on the depth chart in the preseason. The Lions cupboard is bare at the receiver position, which means the offense runs through stud tight end T.J. Hockenson. Last week, Hockenson saw 10 targets, catching eight for 97 yards. I expect him to be heavily targeted here as well.
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.