2023 NBA Finals MVP Odds

After two games of the NBA Finals, we are surprisingly tied at 1-1. 

Despite being massive favorites (-425) to win their first NBA Championship, the Nuggets dropped a critical Game 2 at home, 111-108 to the Heat. The series now shifts back to Miami for an always-pivotal Game 3. 

Sportsbooks such as DraftKings had Nikola Jokic as the overwhelming favorite (-360) to win the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award. The two-time regular-season MVP is playing in his first NBA Finals and came off a brilliant Western Conference Finals MVP performance. Those current odds have certainly changed.  

While Jokic (-265) is still a substantial favorite, his odds have dropped dramatically from his pre-series mark at -360. Miami’s Jimmy Butler (+475) and Denver’s Jamal Murray (+475) have seen their odds dropped as well, while Bam Adebayo’s odds have skyrocketed from +4000 to the current level at +550. 

Let’s examine the current odds and see who are the best updated values on the board for the NBA Finals. 

Who Will Win NBA Finals MVP? 

Here are the current favorites for odds to take home the NBA Finals MVP, per DraftKings.

Why is Nikola Jokic Favored for Odds to Win NBA Finals MVP? 

Being the best player on the planet, on the team that is still the heavy favorite to win the NBA Championship is a very compelling reason to be favorite for NBA Finals MVP. 

Nikola Jokic averaged a triple-double in the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers, posting 27.8 PPG, 14.5 RPG and 11.8 APG. Jokic has posted seven 30-plus point games in his last 12 playoff contests, highlighted by a 53-point outburst in Game 4 against Phoenix. The two-time MVP had a strong case for a third-straight regular-season award this year and is the center of everything Denver does on offense. While Jamal Murray (32.5 PPG) actually outscored Jokic in the Western Conference Finals, the overall contributions of the Nuggets’ center are just incredible. 

In Game 1, we saw a vintage Jokic performance with a triple-double (27 points, 10 rebounds, 14 assists). In Game 2, he posted 41 points and 11 rebounds. He is still the clear-cut MVP if the Nuggets win, but will they? All we’ve learned from the first two games is that Murray has very little chance to overtake Jokic for the MVP. 

Another factor to consider when betting on NBA Finals MVP odds is the difference between NBA Championship odds and NBA Finals MVP odds. The Nuggets title odds at -275 equates to a 73.3% probability of winning. Jokic’s MVP odds of -265 translate to a 72.6% chance of winning. This means the sportsbooks believe that if Denver wins the championship, it is almost certain that Jokic is the MVP. Given that Murray outscored Jokic in the Western Conference Finals, his +1400 odds (6.7%) seemed like a nice value prior to the start of the series.

Longshot Bets to Consider for NBA Finals MVP Odds

The NBA Finals is one of the few situations where supporting players can raise their game despite enormous pressure. While the best player usually wins the award, history has provided surprises such as Andre Iguodala (2015), Tony Parker (2007) and Joe Dumars (1989) have found their way to NBA Finals success. Since Denver is such an overwhelming favorite, all Miami Heat players actually provide great contrarian value. Here are two players that stand out as potential winners of this award. 

Jimmy Butler — NBA Finals MVP Odds +475

After superb consecutive series against Milwaukee and New York, Jimmy Butler led his team to the NBA Finals after an Eastern Conference Finals average of 24.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 6.1 APG. While teammate Caleb Martin narrowly missed out on stealing the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, it was difficult to envision a repeat performance in the NBA Finals. It’s not Martin that Butler has to worry about, but Bam Adebayo. 

There is still time for Butler to have a masterful series and lead Miami to the title. If Butler posts a 40-plus point performance in a Game 3 win, these odds will plummet. At 4.75 to 1, I fully support backing Miami’s star forward, who has been the best player throughout the 2023 NBA Playoffs. There is still time for a Butler run at NBA Final MVP. 

Bam Adebayo — NBA Finals MVP Odds +550

I told you. 

One of the NBA’s best defenders, Adebayo has made the All-NBA Defensive Second team in four straight seasons. His athleticism allows for incredible versatility in guarding any position on the floor. Jokic’s numbers have been strong against Miami, but Adebayo has greatly exceeded his usual averages. Adebayo has averaged 23.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists, while playing 40 minutes in both games. 

This bet is inspired by the Andre Iguodala MVP surprise win of the 2015 NBA Finals, where the Warriors forward won the award despite not starting every game. His defense was invaluable to Golden State, providing superb defense against Cleveland’s LeBron James. Despite playing with high-scorers such as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Iguodala was so good on defense he captured the award. Adebayo has the same level of challenge with Jokic, and thus the same exact opportunity in a Miami upset victory. If he is able to slow Jokic down just a little bit, while averaging 24 points and 11 rebounds, Adebayo would be the heavy favorite on a bet we grabbed pre-series at +4000. 

Understanding NBA Finals MVP Odds

Want to place an NBA Finals MVP odds bet, but are unsure what the odds mean? We have you covered at FTNBets! We will explain below how the odds work, what they mean, and how much money you’d win if you win your bet.

When you go to an online sportsbook like DraftKings, you should see the betting options for NBA Finals MVP odds laid out like this:

• Nikola Jokic -265
• Jimmy Butler +475
• Bam Adebayo +550
• Jamal Murray +4000
• Gabe Vincent +4000

The numbers listed beside each player are the betting odds for each selection. These are referred to as “American” odds and equate what you’d win if you placed a wager of $100. The player with the lowest number is considered the favorite to win. In this case, it’s Nikola Jokic.

The FTNBets Parlay Calculator can guide you to show you how much you’d win based on the NBA Finals MVP odds and the amount of money you’d need to bet.