Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- Tua Tagovailoa has passed for a lot more yards per game (239.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate passers in the league this year with a stellar 69.3% Completion%, checking in at the 94th percentile.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 8.33 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 figure last year.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 57.0 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
