Week 11 NFL Betting Preview: Eagles/Colts

The FTN team uses Adam Pfeifer’s Week 11 fantasy football game-by-game breakdown to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week's Eagles/Colts game.

Now that the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) have lost a game and failed to avoid the inevitable trap game against the Commanders last Monday, they look to get back to winning against an Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1) team coming off first-time head coach Jeff Saturday’s first win. Jonathan Taylor got back on track last week and has a fantastic opportunity against an Eagles defense that endured 49 rushing attempts on Monday and are playing on a short week. Meanwhile, does Matt Ryan have a new favorite target? The Eagles are seven-point favorites in Indy Sunday afternoon.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts Prop Bets Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts “ Jonathan Taylor finally reminded the fantasy community just how good he is Sunday. Taylor rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries last week, adding two receptions for 16 yards. Taylor logged 60-of-64 snaps (94%), handling 24-of-28 running back touches for Indianapolis (86%). Perhaps most importantly, the star running back didn’t aggravate his ankle injury. We’ll see if the playing time and usage are quite as high if Deon Jackson is active this week, but I don’t envision a scenario where Taylor comes off the field very much, especially with Nyheim Hines now in Buffalo. His Week 11 matchup with the Eagles looked bad earlier in the year, but Philadelphia is getting gashed on the ground right now. Just 14% of runs against the Eagles have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the fifth-worst rate in football, as they continue to miss defensive tackle Jordan Davis in the middle of that defensive line. With Davis sidelined over the last two weeks, the Eagles have allowed 139 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce in Week 9, as well as 130 rushing yards and two scores to Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson last week. Taylor is back to being a top-seven fantasy running back.”

Pick: Taylor Over 85.5 Rushing Yards -115 Jonathan Taylor looks to continue last Sunday’s success against an Eagles’ rush defense that is still without Jordan Davis and has not been able to stop opposing running backs the last two weeks. The only trepidation about the line, where it stands currently, is whether the Colts can keep up with the 8-1 Eagles. Over the last two weeks, Houston and Washington maintained near-neutral game scripts against Philadelphia, and that could continue this week. Last week the Commanders ran 81 plays against the Eagles defense, of which 49 plays were runs (60.5%). The week before, Dameon Pierce rushed the ball 27 times for 139 yards. Both instances are proof that teams are looking to establish the run, win time of possession, and keep the Eagles’ offense off the field as much as possible. Look for Jonathan Taylor to get 25+ rushing attempts in this one as the Colts look to slow the game down, run the ball, and keep it close. If he gets the touches, Philadelphia is allowing 4.74 YPA on the entire season (includes games Davis played) and that should propel Taylor well above the 85.5 threshold.

Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts “Ryan’s return also helped Parris Campbell , who hauled in 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown last week. After seeing seven combined targets in the two games with Sam Ehlinger under center, Campbell saw nine targets from Ryan in Week 10, after seeing 11 and 12 targets in Weeks 6 and 7 right before Ryan was benched. Campbell is healthy and enjoying a career season, and while this isn’t the best matchup, it isn’t quite as tough if slot defensive back Avonte Maddox , who missed Week 10, remains sidelined. Targets continue to flow toward the middle of the field against Philadelphia, as they are allowing the most targets per game to the slot this season (10.0).”

Pick: Campbell Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -115 Parris Campbell ’s nine targets Week 10 shows Matt Ryan looks his direction when he’s on the field. With Eagles’ slot corner Avonte Maddox placed on Injured Reserve, this looks like an ideal matchup for Campbell in the slot. In a script that could be run-heavy, look for Matt Ryan to target Parris Campbell upwards of ten times, especially on plays of third and short-to-medium as drive extenders. The accumulation of these middle of the field targets should hit the over by the end of the third.

Week 11 NFL Betting Preview: Eagles/Colts

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