Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Dolphins vs. Texans
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 92.5 (-115) after it opened @ 97.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 10.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has notched significantly more air yards this season (137.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
- Tyreek Hill’s 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 66.1.
- Tyreek Hill has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (105.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
- Tyreek Hill’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 72.7% to 76.6%.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards
102
Receiving Yards
