Week 12 NFL Player Props of the Week
We're back again with our favorite player props of the week. As we gear up for the Sunday action of Week 12, I've got some bets I'm eying.
Here are some of my favorite individual player props for Week 12.
Michael Carter Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
It’s weird — the Jets are actually a respectable football team this season. There’s some more good news: With the benching of Zach Wilson, they should actually be an even better team. The Jets are coming off a game where they averaged 2.2 inches of offense, so really anything is an upgrade. They also find themselves in what should be a fairly competitive game against the Bears. We don’t know if Justin Fields is suiting up, but I’m guessing he doesn’t end up playing. I expect this to be a low-scoring, ugly football game. Because of Mike White making his first start, I’m expecting plenty of second- or third-and-long situations where a dump off will be very in play.
Per the FTN Splits tool, Michael Carter is averaging 8 targets, 5.75 receptions and 60.5 receiving yards in four games with Mike White as the starter. Not only is Wilson being benched addition by subtraction, White has shown a strong tendency to be the checkdown king, and I expect him to be a strong beneficiary of this. Ty Johnson is also someone who may come in and steal a couple catches in the 2-minute drill, and if his lines become available I would probably double up on him also. It becomes extremely tough to trust the receiving room here, but I respect check down galore. James Robinson hasn’t been super involved since being traded, but when he does play it will likely only be in clear rushing situations.
Terry McLaurin Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The last time Terry McLaurin played against the Falcons, he went 6-132-2 with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. While both of these teams may be in different situations, one thing that hasn’t changed is McLaurin’s relationship with his quarterback. With Carson Wentz at quarterback, he was only targeted at least 7 times twice this season, but with Heinicke in he has seen at least 7 targets in five straight matchups. He has even said it in postgame interviews — in those late-game situations the play has constantly been “find Terry or throw the ball away.” There is clearly trust here.
This is also a big game for both of these teams, who are fighting for playoff spots. I’m expecting a competitive game, and I don’t think Washington will just run all over the place like last week against the Texans. Over his last five weeks with Heinicke, McLaurin has seen target shares of 30%, 44%, 35%, 27% and 25%. It’s hard to ignore that kind of volume with or without a good matchup. Luckily for us, the Falcons happen to be one of the worst passing defenses in football. They have allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL this season. McLaurin has primarily served as a deep threat this season, but if he gets off to a slow start then I expect the team to involved in him the screen game, they understand the value of getting their best player the ball.
Howie Long said it best: “If this guy were playing in L.A. or Dallas or New York, he'd be a superstar.” Since this a lowly Washington vs. Atlanta matchup, I think we are getting a good price on someone that should be in the low 70s. He’s averaging 85 yards per game with Heinicke so far this season, and I expect him to come close to that number once again.