NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Trey Murphy o14.5 points
The Pelicans will be without CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram tonight, so that means Trey Murphy should be inserted into the starting lineup and see an increased role with more shot opportunities. Murphy is averaging .57 points per minute with those two off the floor this season, and Murphy should see at least 30 minutes tonight. This is also a great scoring environment, as the New Orleans/Thunder game has a 232 implied total, with OKC playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA and ranking 20th in DEF.
Russell Westbrook o5.5 assists
Russell Westbrook is averaging over seven assists per game this year, and my model has him right around seven assists as well, but this line is likely to move if LeBron James is ruled out. However, I like this bet whether or not James plays, so the upside for this bet could potentially increase as the night goes on.
Evan Mobley u11.5 rebounds
Sure, Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love are out, but this is still a massive number. My model has him for just under nine rebounds tonight in what is sure to be a slow-paced matchup between two teams who are bottom 7 in pace this season.