Derek Carr

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Player Props - Week 13

Raiders vs. Chargers

Right now, Derek Carr's passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Derek Carr has attempted 36.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has afforded their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
  • Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (245.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ279Passing Yards