Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-127) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 16.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has generated 58.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (79th percentile).
Cons
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
