2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: South Region

Welcome to the Sweet 16.

It was an incredible opening weekend, with historic upsets, buzzer-beaters and outstanding individual performances. We now head to the Sweet 16, featuring two No. 1 seeds, No. 9 Florida Atlantic and No. 15 Princeton.

Here is a preview of the South Region’s Sweet 16 matchups, featuring No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State and No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton.

(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook .)

Check out our breakdowns of every region for the NCAA Tournament. South Region Betting Guide Location: Louisville

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State Spread : Alabama -8 Over/Under : 136 Date : Friday, March 24 Time : 6:30 p.m. ET TV : TBS

Best Team Remaining The Crimson Tide were one of the best three teams in college basketball throughout the season. Right now? They are the best remaining in the NCAA Tournament. Alabama has perfect balance on both sides of the ball, ranking 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency and an incredible third overall in adjusted defensive efficiency ( KenPom ). They play with pace, are strong on the defensive boards, and have a star late-game scorer in Brandon Miller. Prior to their opening-round blowout of Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Miller had scored double digits in 25 straight games. He has also registered four games of 30 or more points, including a season-high 41 points in an overtime win at South Carolina.

The path to defeating Alabama starts on the defensive end. Their last two losses have all come to superior defensive teams in Tennessee and Texas A&M. In both games, the Crimson Tide registered at least 18 turnovers, and shot poorly from either 2P or 3P range. Alabama has only five losses because their depth makes it difficult to limit their offense for long stretches of time. They feature three players averaging 10 or more points per game, and three players shooting 35% or better from 3P range on 126 attempts or more.

Interesting note? Alabama has reached this stage of the NCAA Tournament on nine prior occasions, with only one victory. Mark Gottfried’s 2003-2004 team (seeded No. 8) defeated No. 5 Syracuse 80-71, before succumbing to eventual champion No.2 seed Connecticut.

Defense is the Key If defense is the key, San Diego State certainly has a chance in this matchup. The Aztecs rank fifth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency, including fourth-best against the 3P, holding opponents to just 28.7% from beyond the arc. That is critical against an Alabama team that generated the most points from 3P range in the SEC, a whopping 37%.

The Aztecs have six players that average between seven and 13 points per game, led by the ultra-consistent Matt Bradley. The senior guard has scored in double-digits in 11 of his last 12 games, and San Diego State is 9-1 when he scores over 16 points.

Assuming San Diego State can provide resistance from deep, they should keep this game competitive. Their six losses reveal a very obvious pattern:

Arizona 87-70: Wildcats 9 of 20 3P range, 41-30 rebounding advantage Arkansas 78-74 OT: Razorbacks 27/38 FT line, two Aztecs foul out New Mexico 76-67: Jamal Mashburn/Jaelen House combine for 51 points Nevada 75-66: Wolf Pack shoot 61% from 2P Boise State 66-60: Aztecs blow 57-48 lead with six minutes remaining The conclusion? Assuming no foul trouble and a strong defensive effort, the Aztecs should keep this game competitive until the final possession.

The Pick The Aztecs' second-round victory over Furman was extremely impressive. They outscored the Paladins 60-35 over the final 30 minutes, while holding Furman to just 23.1% (6 of 16) from deep. Alabama’s 3P marksmanship is just 34% on the season, proving they were far from automatic in nonconference matchups. There also is a lingering groin injury to Brandon Miller that prevented him from practicing on Monday. The majority of public bets will certainly favor Alabama, but the Aztecs slow pace and stellar defense put me on San Diego State with the points.

The Pick: San Diego State +8

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton Spread: Creighton -10 Over/Under: 140.5 Date: Friday, March 24 Time: 9 p.m. ET TV: TBS

Creighton Peaking The Bluejays look like the team that was one of the preseason favorites to make the Final Four. Creighton was the No. 9-ranked team in both the AP and coaches’ polls prior to the start of the 2022-2023 season. They have impressed in two solid NCAA Tournament victories, defeating NC State and Baylor by an average of 10 points per game.

Creighton’s elite floor spacing, ball movement and shooting ability make them a difficult matchup for any defense. Their 72-63 opening round victory over the Wolfpack was even more impressive given their horrific performance from 3P range (3-20). The Bluejays’ defense is stout, daring teams to shoot from deep, with two-time Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner anchoring the middle of the floor.

The Bluejays offense features five players in double figures, led by Kalkbrenner (15.7 PPG) and sophomore Trey Alexander (13.6 PPG). Against Baylor, it was sophomore Ryan Nembhard who dominated with 30 points, 4/6 3P, and a perfect 10 of 10 from the free-throw line. Creighton’s scoring is not deep, but they do have nine players that average eight minutes or more per game.

A Third Straight Upset? Princeton is an incredible story, posting two consecutive upsets against No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Missouri. The Tigers won each of those games with very different styles, shooting just 16% (4-of-25) from 3P against Arizona, but then 37% (12-of-33) from deep in the win over Missouri.

Everything with Princeton starts with forward Tosan Evbuomwan. The versatile 6-foot-8 senior averages 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Evbuomwan only scored nine points in the win over Missouri, but his nine rebounds and five assists controlled the game without scoring. Senior shooting guard Ryan Langborg (12.3 PPG) is critical to Princeton’s success, coming off a dazzling 22-point outburst in the Missouri victory. The Tigers have won six straight games, and Langborg has scored 12 or more points in five of those six contests.

This is not a typical Princeton team, as the Tigers shoot only 33.4% from 3P range as a team. However, they excel in the 2P area on both sides of the ball, and are the seventh-best defensive rebounding team in the nation.

The Pick This is where Princeton’s magic run comes to an end. While the Tigers have only lost once by more than 10 points, they simply haven’t faced elite competition throughout the season. Their highest ranked nonconference opponent in KenPom was Hofstra in the first game of the season (a six-point loss). Creighton beat NC State and Baylor by nine points, and registered a 13-point victory over Villanova in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. Once the Bluejays get head, Princeton will not be able to recover.

The Pick: Creighton -10

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: South Region

South Region Betting Guide

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State

Best Team Remaining

This feature is only available to FTN Bets Premium Members Only