2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: West Region

Welcome to the Sweet 16.

It was an incredible opening weekend, with historic upsets, buzzer-beaters, and outstanding individual performances. We now head to the Sweet 16, featuring two No. 1 seeds, No. 9 Florida Atlantic and No. 15 Princeton.

Here is a preview of the West Region’s Sweet 16 matchups, featuring No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas and No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga.

(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook .)

Check out our breakdowns of every region for the NCAA Tournament. West Region Betting Guide Location: Las Vegas

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas Spread : Connecticut -3.5 Over/Under : 139.5 Date : Thursday, March 23 Time : 7:15 p.m. ET TV : CBS

Connecticut Peaking Connecticut has been through a wild season, experiencing the true highs and lows of college basketball. A 14-0 start was followed by a brutal 2-6 run, and now the Huskies enter the Sweet 16 as winners in 11 of the past 13 matchups.

At their best, the Huskies get the ball to its arsenal of good shooters, crash the glass, block everything and have legitimately no weaknesses. Their weakness is long droughts of shooting struggles, particularly on the perimeter. Their opening-round win over Iona was one of their all-around best performances. shooting over 50% from the field, over 44% from 3P range, while grabbing 45 rebounds. Their game against St. Mary’s was even more impressive, with the Huskies shooting 60.7% (17 of 28) from the field and 45.5% (10 of 22) from 3P range.

Connecticut’s biggest strengths are offensive rebounding (No. 1 in the nation), defending the three-point line (No. 19 in the nation) and blocking shots (No. 24 in the nation). Their struggles center around their offensive turnover rate (234th in the nation).

Arkansas Grit Arkansas was a fashionable preseason Final Four pick but battled injuries all season. Arkansas lost 6-foot-10 forward Trevon Brazile to an ACL tear in December, and superb freshman Nick Smith dealt with a knee injury that caused him to miss six games to start the year and 13 games in the middle of the season. Arkansas struggled when Smith returned, going just 2-5 to end the season, but that was against strong competition. They competed in road games at Texas A&M, Tennessee and Alabama, three of the top four teams in the SEC.

The Razorbacks really struggle to connect from the perimeter, so they need Smith to find his scoring in this matchup. He has totaled just six points in the last two games, despite playing a total of 44 minutes. There are major concerns that his knee injury is again becoming a problem.

There is no doubt that junior Ricky Council (15.9 PPG) started to wear down at the end of the season but has looked rejuvenated in the NCAA Tournament. Council has scored 39 points combined in the two games, including an impressive 21-of-23 from the foul line. Freshman guard Anthony Black (12.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.2 APG) is an all-around star that posted 12 points, six rebounds, and three steals in Arkansas’ opening-round win over Illinois.

The Pick There are several concerning signs for Arkansas heading into this matchup with Connecticut. Council has scored well but is only 5-of-15 from the field in the two tournament games. Black was completely shut down (4 points, 4 rebounds) against Kansas, and I would suspect Connecticut to do the same. Smith was a non-factor and must play better for the Razorbacks to keep this game close.

Connecticut is the much deeper team, with eight players tallying at least 12 minutes against St. Mary’s. Adama Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is the go-to player, but Jordan Hawkins (15.9 PPG, 38% 3P) and Tristen Newton (10.1 PPG, 37% 3P) are fantastic complementary scorers. The Huskies are one of the most balanced statistical teams in the country, ranking third overall in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They provide too great of a challenge for an Arkansas team that has overcome a ton of adversity this season.

The Pick: Connecticut -3.5

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Spread: UCLA -2 Over/Under: 145.5 Date: Thursday, March 23 Time: 9:45 p.m. ET TV: CBS

Bruins Relentless Consistency UCLA has been one of the most consistent teams all season. Head coach Mick Cronin has instilled a relentless defensive drive that has the Bruins currently holding the second-best overall defensive rating per KenPom. UCLA also ranks 11th overall in defensive turnover rate. Despite losing the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Jaylen Clark, to an Achilles injury, the Bruins have continued to steamroll their opponents. UCLA trounced a very solid UNC Asheville team, 86-53 in the opening round of the tournament. Then, they comfortably beat a very strong Northwestern team, 68-63. The only time UCLA was trailing the Wildcats was after an opening possession three-pointer by Robbie Beran.

If you are going to beat the Bruins, you must follow a similar schematic to Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game. The Wildcats pounded the boards and were able to hit timely shots. UCLA gives nothing easy at the rim, so a team must shoot well to defeat the Bruins.

The loss of Clark limits the Bruins on offense, putting more pressure on the trio of Tyger Campbell (13.4 PPG, 4.9 APG), Jaime Jacquez (17.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, and freshman Amari Bailey (10.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG). These three players scored 48 of UCLA’s 58 points in the loss to Arizona.

Starting center Adem Bona returned from a separated shoulder to play against Northwestern. He produced a mild stat line of six points, one rebound, and two blocks in just 21 minutes. It was great to see the 6-foot-10 freshman back on the floor, but how will he handle the massive assignment of guarding All-American Drew Timme?

Gonzaga Underrated? Gonzaga has been flying under the radar for most of the season despite a 30-5 record and the nation’s longest active winning streak (11 games). The Bulldogs went 28-5, won the WCC Conference Tournament, and earned impressive nonconference wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, and Xavier.

The main difference with Gonzaga is their inconsistent guard play. While the Bulldogs rank first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2P interior percentage, they have struggled on the perimeter against their top opponents. Nolan Hickman (43.5%) and Rasir Bolton (44.3%) have both struggled with efficiency. In a shocking home loss to Loyola Marymount, the Zags shot just 4-of-14 from 3P range (28.6%) and could not supplement the scoring from Drew Timme on the interior. Gonzaga has also been poor on perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot over 35% from 3P range and over 51% from 2P range.

However, the Zags are now playing their best basketball of the season. During their current 11-game winning streak, they have scored 77 or more points in all of those games, cresting 84 points in eight of those contests. However, the Zags will not play their most difficult game since a 64-63 loss to Baylor Dec. 2. The 84-81 victory over TCU has solid but was greatly enhanced by the absence of former TCU center Eddie Lampkin, leaving the Horned Frogs without any reasonable way to guard Timme (28 points).

The Pick Without a doubt, this is the toughest game to predict in the Sweet 16.

UCLA has been incredibly solid all season, but are very short handed without Clark, and with Bona still limited. The Bruins have received solid minutes from 6-foot-10 Kenneth Nwuba and freshman Dylan Andrews, but will that be enough against the Zags?

If the Bruins were fully healthy, I would lay the points. However, the lack of depth for the Bruins and the consistency of Gonzaga’s offense makes this a last possession type of game. The Bulldogs are better than Arizona, who just beat this Bruins team despite having poor guard play. I believe in Mark Few, Timme’s dominance, and see no reason to lay any points in this matchup.

The Pick: Gonzaga +2

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: West Region

West Region Betting Guide

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas

Connecticut Peaking

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