2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: East Region

Welcome to the Sweet 16!

It was an incredible opening weekend, with historic upsets, buzzer-beaters, and outstanding individual performances. We now head to the Sweet 16, featuring two No. 1 seeds, No. 9 Florida Atlantic and No. 15 Princeton.

Here is a preview of the East Region’s Sweet 16 matchups, featuring No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic and No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State.

(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook .)

Check out our breakdowns of every region for the NCAA Tournament. East Region Betting Guide Location: New York City

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Spread : Tennessee -5.5 Over/Under : 130.5 Date : Thursday, March 23 Time : 9 p.m. ET TV : TBS

Tennessee Silent Winning Despite superior metrics throughout the season, Tennessee has been vastly underappreciated by the national media. The Volunteers rank as the No. 1 defense in the country per KenPom and are also stingiest against the 3P (26.4% allowed). Tennessee is relentless on the boards, ranking seventh-best in offensive rebounding percentage and 11th at 2P interior defense.

On offense, however, it is a different story.

Tennessee struggles to create offense, ranking just 161st in 2P efficiency and 218th beyond the arc. The Volunteers top four scorers all average between 10 and 12 points per game. They are not an explosive offensive team and can go long droughts without scoring. Everything on offense runs through point guard Santiago Vescovi (12.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.1 APG), who excels from 3P range (37.1% on 237 attempts).

The Volunteers have shown the ability to play with the elite teams but struggle against inferior opponents. The posted home wins over Texas and Alabama, but also a road loss to Vanderbilt and two losses to Missouri. If you have perimeter players that can attack off the dribble, the Vols are vulnerable.

The Cinderella Owls Florida Atlantic continues their magic story into the Sweet 16. The Owls have been one of the best stories of the season, boasting a nine-game winning streak on the heels of a 33-3 campaign. Head coach Dusty May has guided his team to a nonconference road win over Florida in November and has never looked back.

Florida Atlantic brings one of the most balanced offensive attacks, shooting 54% from 2P range and 37% from beyond the arc. The Owls have four players that shoot over 36% from beyond the arc on over 100 attempts, including leading scorer Johnell Davis (38.8% on 116 attempts).

Defensively, the Owls are carrying very strong metrics. They rank 14th in 2P percentage allowed (45%) and hold opponents to just 31.7% from 3P range. They are also due for some free throw regression, as teams have been hitting almost 75% of their attempts from the charity stripe this season.

The Pick When you look at the profile on how to beat Tennessee, you see a team built like Florida Atlantic. Missouri was able to score repeatedly against the Volunteers defense, despite being a poor defensive team. Florida Atlantic is much better and has perimeter scorers and shooters to attack this Tennessee defense.

If the Volunteers are hot from deep, this game could get ugly. If their offensive struggles continue, FAU could find themselves playing for a trip to the Final Four. I’ll take the 5.5 points with the Owls to continue their Cinderella story at MSG.

The Pick: Florida Atlantic +5.5

No.3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spread: Michigan State -2 Over/Under: 137.5 Date: Thursday, March 23 Time: 6:30 p.m. ET TV: TBS

Izzo In March Tom Izzo is March is tough to beat, and Michigan State is at it again.

The Spartans reached Madison Square Garden with a comfortable opening-round win over No. 10 USC and a fantastic 69-60 upset over No. 2 Marquette. Michigan State is loaded in the backcourt with the versatile trio of AJ Hoggard (12.5 PPG, 5.9 APG, 46.2% 3P), Tyson Walker (14.8 PPG, 40.7% 3P), and Jaden Akins (9.6 PPG, 1.2 SPG, 40.5% 3P). Michigan State ranks sixth-best in the country in team 3P accuracy at 38.7%.

Defensively, the Spartans are a slight notch below their usual level, ranking just 85th overall in defending the interior (48.2%). However, they finished first overall in Big Ten play against the 3P (30.7%) and have improved on the boards all season. Against Marquette, they held a 36-31 advantage on the boards.

Wildcats Dynamic Duo Everything with Kansas State flows through seniors Keyontae Johnson (17.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 41% 3P) and Markquis Nowell (17.1 PPG, 7.8 APG, 35.1% 3P). They combined for 40 of the Wildcats’ 75 points in the second-round win over Kentucky.

However, per Haslametrics , the Wildcats are simply a different team away from home. Kansas State has the 19th-worst Away From Home rating among 357 Division I teams. They faced an inferior Montana State team in Round 1 and an injury-riddled Kentucky roster in the Round of 32. Prior to that, Kansas State was just 1-6 in their prior seven road games, with their sole win coming against an Oklahoma State team with limited production from injured center Moussa Cisse.

Kansas State is susceptible to turnovers, ranking 285th in offensive turnover rate per KenPom. They are also horrific on the defensive boards, ranking dead-last in the Big 12. Throw in their good fortune of teams shooting just 69% against them on the free throw line, and there are concerns across the board with the Wildcats in this matchup.

The Pick There is a reason the lower-seeded Spartans are favored in this matchup. Kansas State has enjoyed a superb season under first-year coach Jerome Tang, but their reliance on Johnson and Nowell is starting to show. I expect the Spartans to limit the production of both players with Izzo being the “Master of March.” I also see Michigan State earning a similar advantage on the boards just like against Marquette. The majority of bets and money are coming in on Kansas State, I will go in the other direction.

The Pick: Michigan State -2

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: East Region

East Region Betting Guide

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

Tennessee Silent Winning

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