2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting Preview

Thursday gave us one of the best groups of Sweet 16 games the NCAA Tournament has ever produced. Kansas State’s Markquis Nowell broke the tournament record for assists, No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic advanced to the Sweet 16 and Julian Strawther’s three from the logo sent Gonzaga to the Elite Eight. Just a brilliant night of basketball. Friday featured the elimination of the tournament's last two 1 seeds, giving us an Elite Eight without any of the chalk.

Which teams will win one more game and reach the Final Four in Houston? Let’s have a deep dive on each of the upcoming Elite Eight matchups. Check out our full 2023 March Madness Betting Guide here .

Check out our breakdowns of every region for the NCAA Tournament. East Region Betting Guide Location: New York City

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Spread : Kansas State -2.5 Over/Under : 144.5 Date : Saturday, March 25 Time : 6:09 p.m. ET TV : TBS

It was a fantastic start to the Sweet 16, with Kansas State and Michigan State providing seven lead changes en route to the Wildcats’ 98-93 win Sparty. The Wildcats jumped out to a 43-38 halftime lead only to see the Spartans fight back behind a superb second half from A.J. Hoggard, who ended with a career-high 25 points.

The Wildcats’ two leading scorers (Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell) put on a show, combining for 42 points. Nowell set an NCAA Tournament record with 19 assists with only two turnovers. He also fought through an ankle injury that took him out of the second half for several minutes.

The Wildcats were bolstered by a super three-point shooting night, going 11-of-24 (45.8%) from beyond the arc. Kansas State shot a combined 9-of-36 (25%) from deep in the first two NCAA Tournament games.

The question is, can Kansas State continue this magical ride?

Florida Atlantic trailed for almost the first 30 minutes until a Michael Forrest three with 9:50 remaining gave the Owls a lead they would never relinquish. Despite facing one of the elite defenses in the country, Florida Atlantic found their offensive stroke in the second half. Even more impressive, the Owls outrebounded the Volunteers, 40-36. Head coach Dusty May cited his team’s toughest and relentless desire to overcome their biggest adversary this season.

One of these incredible stories will continue, and I believe it will be Florida Atlantic.

Kansas State had a fortunate draw against Montana State in the opening round and beat a shorthanded Kentucky team in Round 2 despite poor three-point shooting. Without their blistering hot shooting again, I don’t see them winning against the Owls.

Florida Atlantic brings one of the most balanced offensive attacks, shooting 54% from 2P range and 37% from beyond the arc. The Owls have four players that shoot over 36% from beyond the arc on over 100 attempts, including leading scorer Johnell Davis (38.8% on 116 attempts).

Defensively, the Owls carry underrated and balanced metrics. They rank 14th in 2P percentage allowed (45%) and hold opponents to just 31.7% from 3P range. They are also due for some free throw regression, as teams have been hitting almost 75% of their attempts from the charity stripe this season. Kansas State shoots over 75% from the foul line, which is exactly what Tennessee shot Thursday night.

The Wildcats hope rests with Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. Nowell has been sensational but will face a deep Florida Atlantic roster that can switch multiple players onto the diminutive guard. Johnson is the matchup the Owls need to address, and it’s possible Johnson posts a season-best stat line. However, I do not see the Wildcats shooting 11-of-24 from 3P range again, nor getting insanely great contributions from role players such as Ismael Massoud. The 6-foot-9 New York-native posted a season-high 15 points on 4 of 6 from beyond the arc. Massoud, Cam Carter and David N’Guessan combined to average 17.9 PPG during the regular season. On Thursday against Michigan State, they combined for 38 points.

I respect Kansas State’s offense, and head coach Jerome Tang has done a remarkable job with a Wildcats team that was projected last in the Big 12 preseason poll. I have just believed in this Florida Atlantic team all year and see no reason to stop now. The Owls haven’t even posted a great 3P shooting game in this NCAA Tournament. Let’s hope for some regression for both teams from beyond the arc, which will put our Florida Atlantic Owls in Houston for the Final Four.

The Pick Florida Atlantic +2.5

West Region Betting Guide Location: Las Vegas

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Connecticut Spread : Connecticut -2 Over/Under : 153.5 Date : Saturday, March 25 Time : 8:49 p.m. ET TV : TBS

Many thought Gonzaga was underrated coming into the tournament, despite being a No. 3 seed. Gonzaga has been flying under the radar despite their 31-5 record, currently carrying the nation’s longest active winning streak (12 games). The Bulldogs went 28-5 in the regular season, won the WCC Conference Tournament, and earned impressive nonconference wins over Michigan State, Kentucky and Xavier.

Despite Gonzaga’s first overall ranking in points per game (86.1 PPG), their backcourt has struggled to maintain consistent production. While the Bulldogs rank first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2P interior percentage, they have struggled on the perimeter against their top opponents. Nolan Hickman (43.5%) and Rasir Bolton (44.3%) have both struggled with efficiency. In a shocking home loss to Loyola Marymount, the Zags shot just 4-of-14 from 3P range (28.6%) and could not supplement the scoring from Drew Timme on the interior. Gonzaga has also been poor on perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot over 35% from 3P range and over 51% from 2P range.

However, Timme has simply taken games over in the tournament, posting 21, 28 and 36 points in the Bulldogs’ first three NCAA Tournament matchups. The reigning All-American has avoided foul trouble and managed to hit a 3P in each of the last two games.

The Bulldogs will need every ounce of greatness from Timme against a sizzling-hot Connecticut team. The Huskies are playing their absolute best basketball of the season, winning their first three tournament games by 24, 15 and 23 points. The Huskies faced a superb defensive Arkansas team and torched the Razorbacks for 64.7% from 2P range and 45% from beyond the arc. Right now, Connecticut appears to have no weakness. Connecticut outrebounded Arkansas 43-31 and holds a 119-82 advantage on the board over their three NCAA Tournament foes.

Sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins was fantastic against Arkansas, finishing as the game’s leading scorer with 24 points. The main concern entering the tournament was Connecticut’s backcourt, making Hawkins’ performance even more important.

During their current 12-game winning streak, Gonzaga has scored 77 or more points in all of those games, cresting 84 points in eight of those contests. However, the Zags caught a huge break from 6-foot-10 starting center Adem Bona was announced as unavailable prior to tipoff. Timme will not have another monster game against the deep roster of Connecticut, and without a massive game from Timme, the Bulldogs cannot win. Throw in Gonzaga’s brutal free throw shooting this year (69.8%), and this game projects as another big Connecticut win. I’m laying the small number with the Huskies.

The Pick Connecticut -2

South Region Betting Guide Location: Louisville

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 5 San Diego State Spread : Creighton -1.5 Over/Under : 133.5 Date : Sunday, March 26 Time : 2:20 p.m. ET TV : CBS

Creighton was everyone’s darling coming into the season this year, with some media outlets going as far ranking them top five in their preseason rankings. And what was not to like about the Bluejays coming into the season? They returned a solid core of four starters from a 23-win team and added a coveted transfer in Baylor Scheierman, who can impact the game in multiple different ways. Yet, like most media hype trains, Creighton’s season didn’t pan out as most imagined, specifically hitting a very difficult stretch in December where they lost six straight games with center Ryan Kalkbrenner out with an illness. Creighton has been able to overcome that midseason adversity and now look again like the team everyone thought they were and are firing on all cylinders both offensively and defensively, getting to the Elite Eight pretty convincingly.

San Diego State flew a little under the radar this year after dominating a very underrated Mountain West Conference. Brian Dutcher has built a team that can win in March (and beat elite teams like Alabama), specifically around defense (fourth nationally, per KenPom) and rebounding. Like Creighton, the Aztecs returned four starters from a 23-win season, and they added two high-impact transfers in Darrion Trammell (who is coming off a 21-point game) and Jaedon LeDee, who both vastly improve the one area San Diego State has struggled with, offensive shotmaking. San Diego State has bothered ball handlers all tournament with their high-pressuer perimeter defense, and it will be interesting to see how the Creighton backcourt handles it in a rematch from last year’s first-round overtime thriller.

Matchup-wise, to me this one is quite simple to analyze. Both teams’ defensive schemes are quite similar in wanting to play deep drop coverage and leverage their elite rim protection behind Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner and San Diego State’s Nate Mensah. The difference (which is why San Diego State defense is better statistically) is that the Aztecs have a much deeper bench and disposal of athletes to aggressively pressure the perimeter and make ball handlers uncomfortable while Creighton’s short rotation plays a much more conservative drop coverage. Offensively, the difference between these two teams is what is going to be the deciding factor. Creighton has much better spacing and shotmaking ability than the Aztecs do with Ryan Nembhard, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman playing their best basketball of the season. Furthermore, the Bluejays are perfectly equipped to handle the Aztec defensive pressure as we’ve seen them coast all year against teams with similar defensive pressure like St. Johns and NC State in the opening round.

Overall, what this game is going to come down to is whose backcourt can make enough plays, specifically in the mid range against the drop coverage, and Creighton just has more paths to be successful there. The Aztecs will need ceiling performances from both Trammell and Matt Bradley offensively or muck the game up and get a lot of the Creighton starters in foul trouble to exploit their weak bench. Both are certainly possible, but I trust Greg McDermott and company to get it done.

The Pick Creighton -1.5

Midwest Region Betting Guide Location: Kansas City

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Miami Spread : Texas -4 Over/Under : 149.5 Date : Sunday, March 26 Time : 5:05 p.m. ET TV : CBS

It was a wild road for Texas this season to finally get here to the Elite Eight, including multiple injuries and the firing of their head coach Chris Beard. Texas’ talent was never a question coming into the season as they returned four core pieces from a 22-win season and brought in two high-impact transfers in Sir’Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter. But many (myself included) were disappointed a season ago when their season performances didn’t match their overall talent level and they were bounced easily in the second round. The Longhorns seem to have finally put it all together and are playing their best basketball of the season, coming off an impressive Big 12 tournament championship. The major question for the Horns will be the health of surging big man Dylan Disu who is questionable with a foot injury, but as we just saw against Xavier, Texas’s frontcourt depth is more than capable of stepping up and Texas still is elite even without him surveying the paint.

Guards in March is certainly a thing, and Jim Larrañaga has certainly proved that coming off a Sweet 16 win against the best team in the country in Houston and getting to the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons. Miami is spearheaded by the elite perimeter play of Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack, who have carried the Canes so far this tournament and led Miami to KenPom’s sixth-most efficient offense in the nation. Of course, the Canes are a bit undersized and can be exploited at the rim, but the versatility of Jordan Miller and Norchad Omier has made up for it all season as Miami continues to put up ceiling offensive performances this tournament.

Matchup wise, the Canes schematically very much resembles the Xavier team Texas just saw Friday night. Miami loves to spread you out and has elite playmakers both in the backcourt and on the wing that will try to exploit mismatches and create open shots. Texas is primarily a switching-based defense with “no middle” principles brought over from Beard’s time at Texas Tech. The Horns are able to primarily switch due to the slew of athletes and elite individual defenders they have that can guard multiple positions. We just saw players like Souley Boum and Colby Jones really struggle to get anything going offensively against the Texas switch that will force you into a ton of isolation situations. Miami was able to get esay buckets against the hyper aggressive Houston defense (and Pack going nuclear from the three-point line) and they’ll have to seek offense a lot more in this game through isolation. Where I think Texas would slow Miami down a bit with their 10 th -ranked defense per KenPom, I think the real difference in this game will come down to Miami’s 104 th -ranked defense. The Longhorns could at times go through stretches where they struggle to get good shots, but I don’t see them having much trouble against the undersized Miami frontcourt here where they should be able to find mismatches to exploit. Unless Miami is able to put up another 80-plus-point performance, I see way more paths for the Horns here, even if Disu is unable to go. I see it playing out very similarly to the Xavier game and Miami’s run again coming to an end in the Elite Eight.

The Pick Texas -4

2023 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting Preview

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