Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The octagon heads to New Jersey this week for the return of Henry “Triple C” Cejudo as he comes out of retirement to challenge Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight belt. It’s been three years since Cejudo graced the octagon, and after a couple of wins for Aljo and enough trash talk, Cejudo is back in the octagon to settle the score and declare himself the best once more.
In the co-main event, Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad face off to determine the No. 1 contender in the welterweight division. Before the main events, though, we have an exciting women’s fight between Jessica Andrade and Yan Xionan. A war that should bring fireworks and even be a contender for the fight of the night. We also witness an explosive matchup when the steamrolla Matt Frevola faces off against the always-dangerous Drew Dober.
There are 14 fights on the docket Saturday night, and below I will be breaking down my favorite fights and producing a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Cejudo vs. Sterling Odds
Henry Cejudo -115; Aljamain Sterling -105
“Triple C” Cejudo is back after three years on the sidelines as a retired fighter turned coach. Henry left on top of the mountain, so it makes sense why he’s granted the title shot in his first fight back. Cejudo retired at the top as a two-division champ and beat everyone there was to beat at the time. He beat Demetrius Johnson to win the flyweight belt, then defended the belt against T.J. Dillashaw. He then decided to jump up a weight class and go after the bantamweight title. He beat Marlon Moraes as his first test in a new division, then beat legend Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title. At that point, the two-time UFC champion and Olympic Gold medalist rode off into the sunset and a coaching role.
Cejudo has always based his game around his wrestling, and throughout his career, he has added tools to his arsenal. His striking has improved significantly, and his clinch game after fighting Demetrius Johnson has become one of his primary weapons. What makes Henry so great is his ability to push a high pace and blend his striking and wrestling effortlessly. Henry averages 3.92 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 93% of takedown attempts. Henry is beyond well-rounded.
Meeting him halfway in the cage is the current bantamweight champion Sterling. He has not lost since losing to Marlon Moraes in 2017. Since that fight, he has won eight consecutive contests and became champion after beating Petr Yan for the belt twice. The first time he fought Petr, it was controversial as Yan connected with an illegal knee and was disqualified. Many believed that Sterling did a good job collecting his acting award, but after surgery and another fight, the score was settled, and Sterling came out as the champion.
After the Yan saga, Sterling would defend his belt against Dillashaw, where he dominated and found a finish in the second round. Sterling, like Cejudo, has a wrestling base but uses it in a funky way that blends unorthodox strikes and kicks into his takedowns. Sterling averages 4.70 significant strikes landed per minute and 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes but only defends 41% of takedowns coming his way. Considering the UFC average for takedown defense is 56%, Sterling could be in trouble on fight night, but I don’t think he will because he’s also the bigger fighter physically by height and reach. Sterling has a three-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage. Cejudo has fought taller fighters, but the reach was never such a disparity. Considering he will have to close the distance to set up strikes and takedowns, Sterling can see the takedowns coming and keep Cejudo behind his jab. From a betting perspective, this fight will be a grind, and I expect it to go the distance. I give the edge to Sterling because of his size, speed, and jiujitsu. Cejudo can wrestle, and I do expect him to get takedowns, but I expect there to be scrambles and for Aljamain to end up on top or the back. If Cejudo didn’t retire and stay active, I would give him the edge to be away from the game for three years and return at thirty-six. I can’t see him dominating the way he used to. Aljo wins a split decision here and continues his reign, while Cejudo rides off into the sunset again.
Best Bet: Aljamain Sterling ML -105/Sterling vs. Cejudo fight goes the distance -145
Burns vs. Muhammad Odds
Gilbert Burns -125; Belal Muhammad +105
The co-main event features Burns and Muhammad in a bout that determines the future No. 1 contender in the welterweight division. Burns is coming off a win in Miami two weeks ago against now-retired Jorge Masvidal and is fighting in his third fight within five months. This time he steps into the octagon to fight another grinder, Muhammad. Like Burns, Muhammad has been calling out and fighting everyone who can get him to a title shot. Muhammad hasn’t lost since 2019 and is on an eight-fight win streak. He is well-rounded and capable of being a problem anywhere the fight goes. He averages 4.47 significant strikes landed per minute, 2.19 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and he defends 92% of takedowns coming his way. During this run, he has beaten some formidable opponents, but if you look closer, he beat fighters already old or on their way out. His first real challenge was Leon Edwards, and that fight almost left him blind after it was stopped due to an eye poke. After that fight, he beat Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque and Sean Brady. Muhammad has the resume, and if he can get a win over Burns this weekend, he will have finally earned his title shot. Still, out of the list of killers that Belal has beat, none are like Burns. Muhammad has fought good jiujitsu fighters and good strikers, but none that could do both well enough to make a difference. Burns averages 3.38 significant strikes per minute, 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defends 47% of takedowns. This could be a problem if burns weren’t such a stud on the ground. The difference in this fight will be that Muhammad will have to strike and look opportunistic in finding a takedown and won’t be able to land takedowns at will. Gilbert not only has good jiujitsu to counter Muhammad’s wrestling, but he also has the power to knock out Belal at any moment, and for that reason, I think Muhammad will have trouble this weekend. From a betting perspective, I am going to side with Burns and will also take this fight to go the distance, as I believe both fighters are durable enough and motivated enough to give the fans a show for five rounds.
Best Bet: Gilbert Burns ML -125/Burns in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision +200
Andrade vs. Xionan Odds
Jessica Andrade -186; Yan Xionan +156
Before we get to the co and main event, two women will be stepping into the cage. Andrade is no stranger to exciting fights, and over the past few years, she has only fought top contenders or for the belt. Andrade is one of the only female fighters to have a win in three different divisions and has challenged for the belt in two of those divisions. Andrade is coming off a loss to Erin Blanchfield by submission. Call it a rude awakening, but the Brazilian is now tasked with Yan Xionan, who presents a different challenge. Xionan is a China-based fighter who fights out of Sacramento under head coach and UFC Hall of Famer Uriah Faber. Xionan is fast, dynamic and doesn’t shy away from a scrap. She averages 5.45 significant strikes landed per minute, 0.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defends 70% of takedowns coming her way. In the past, Xionan had shown weakness in her ground game, which was exposed when she fought Carla Esparza. Esparza dominated Xionan and, through her wrestling was able to secure a second-round finish in dominating fashion. That may be an issue in this matchup because Andrade can wrestle and input black belt levels of jiujitsu and the power to end the fight with one punch. Xionans will have to pick her spots and use her movement to tire Andrade and not let her get takedowns. The issue is that if she negates the takedowns, she will have to stand and strike, leading to exchanges that could end the night early for Xionan. From a betting perspective, this is a bad matchup for Xionan; she is going up against an angry and motivated Andrade, that has fought at the heights that Xionan is still trying to reach. I expect this fight to end early, and if it doesn’t, I expect Andrade to win unanimously.
Best Bet: Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO or decision -115
Gracie vs. Jourdain Odds
Kron Gracie +150; Charles Jourdain -175
Kicking off the main card is the son of a legend and jiujitsu ace Kron Gracie. He’s up against the always exciting and dangerous “Air” Jourdain. Kron is coming back after a four-year layoff. He last fought in 2019 against Cub Swanson. He was defeated and did not look good in the fight. He couldn’t get his game plan going; therefore, Swanson was able to pick him apart with strikes and defend against the takedown. It was the first loss for Kron, but it wasn’t his first fight in the UFC. In his debut, Kron squared off against Alex Caceres, and it only took one mistake from Caceres for Kron to capitalize and found a rear naked choke. It’s been four years since we’ve last seen Kron, and one can only assume that he has worked on his striking. Kron Averages 5.15 significant strikes landed per minute, 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he doesn’t defend takedowns because he prefers the fight to be on the ground. There have even been times when Kron will create a clinch so that he can pull guard. He doesn’t have much of a sample size because he only fought twice in the UFC before he disappeared, but Kron is a lifelong competitor and son of one of the greatest combat athletes ever to exist, Rickson Gracie.
One thing is for sure, Jourdain cannot have this fight hit the canvas. Jourdain has to use his striking and movement to avoid entangling with Kron. The more the fight stays standing, the better the chances of Jourdain winning this fight. Jourdain averages 5.84 significant strikes landed per minute, 0.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and defends 48% of takedowns. This may seem like a high number and good defense, but it is predicated on Jourdain’s athleticism. The moment Jourdain can’t get back to his feet is when he is in real danger. In the past, Jourdain has struggled when his opponents make him wrestle and defend takedowns. The work rate of defending takedowns eats into the energy needed to use many weapons in his arsenal. Jourdain has only ever lost by submission or decision, and in this matchup, I’m going with the jiujitsu ace to tie up Jourdain and finish the fight with the Arte Suave, jiujitsu.
Best Bet: Kron Gracie ML +150/Kron by submission +250
Dober vs. Frevola Odds
Drew Dober -215; Matt Frevola +175
The feature prelim of the night comes from “Steamrolla” Frevola and Dober. Both fighters are 3-2 in their last five fights, and both have finished or have seen finishes in three out of five of those fights. Frevola and Dober only know how to fight in one manner. They are exciting, hit hard and average slightly over eight minutes of fight time. There are a couple of differences between the fighters, though. For one, Frevola averages 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Dober averages a mere 0.71. Dober does defend over 50% of takedowns; he also has 19 fights in the UFC and has the edge in experience in this matchup. Frevola does come from a good camp and, over time, has improved his striking and defense to limit damage when he brawls. The issue is, though, that he brawls, and brawling against a fighter like Dober will not end well because just like Frevola he hits like a Steamroller. The cleaner, more educated striker is Dober, in my opinion, and he also has a granite chin to match the firepower. If Frevola is t able to incorporate his wrestling into the game plan, then it will end early for him, as I lean toward Drew Dober because he is more experienced and durable enough to fight through the fire.
Best Bet: Drew Dober by KO/TKO or submission -140
Nzechukwu vs. Clark Odds
Kennedy Nzechukwu -185; Devin Clark +155
Another exciting fight on the card features Nzechukwu and Clark. Nzechukwu is the moderate favorite in this matchup, and with good reason, if you consider that, he’s found finishes in his last two trips to the octagon. Nzechukwu had a finish by TKO in his previous two fights and showed a new, less cautious side to his game that seemed to be holding him back in the past. Nzechukwu averages 4.63 significant strikes landed per minute, 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 80% of takedowns coming his way. He also has a height (5 inches) and reach (8 inches) advantage that will be useful when Clark attempts to close the distance to get a takedown. Clark is strong and uses his wrestling background to steer his game plan on fight night. He averages 2.91 significant strikes landed per minute, 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he defends 59% of takedowns. In my opinion, the height and reach advantage will be too much for Clark, and Nzechkwu will pick Clark from a distance and in the clinch, will be the one to dominate on top. The longer this fight goes, the worst it is for Clark, who has a history of gassing out. This is a fun fight and has a chance of being a performance of the night for Kennedy or a battle for the fans. Either way, I expect Nzechukwu to win this fight and dominate.
Best Bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu by KO/TKO or submission +130/Clark vs. Nzechukwu under 2.5 rounds -105
Hawes vs. Aliskerov Odds
Phil Hawes +165; Ikram Aliskerov -200
Hawes is back in his home state to take on a new contender in Aliskerov. The rookie is fighting out of Russia and brings with him a resume that includes wrestling and combat Sambo. He debuted on the contender series and immediately impressed the bosses when he found a finish in the very first round of Kimura. Aliskerov has only been to three decisions in fourteen fights. Since joining the UFC, he averages a fight time of 2:43s. He also averages 3.26 significant strikes landed per minute, 6.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, and defends 0% of takedowns so far in the UFC because, in his lone fight for the promotion, he never spent a second on his back. Still, the takedown will be tested against Hawes and his 100% takedown defense. Hawes, in my opinion, is living down in this fight because he not only possesses the ability to stop the takedown, but he also has the potential to shut the lights off for Aliskerov and make it an early night. Hawes is exciting every time he fights, and 67% of his fights end with a knockout. He does have the ability to submit his opponents but usually finds the win in the brawling exchanges. This matchup is good for Hawes because he’s up against a newcomer that can wilt under the lights, and also, he has all the tools to do well against the Russian. Both fighters have been knocked out in the past, and if it happens to Hawes, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I think that if Aliskerov were to get a knockout, it would be using ground and pound and not while standing. For that reason, I will side with Hawes because I believe he has the takedown defense to stop the takedown attempts and the power to find a finish.
Best Bet: Phil Hawes ML +165
