Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The UFC heads back to the Apex in Las Vegas for a five-round main event headlined by Mackenzie Dern and Angela “Overkill” Hill. The co-main event features two exciting fighters looking to make a name for themselves when Alex “Fluffy” Hernandez takes on the Ronda Rousey protege Edman Shahbazyan. There is also an exciting matchup between Joaquin Buckley and Andre Fialho that you won’t want to miss or even blink as both fighters are looking to end it early and collect a bonus check.
There are 12 fights are on the card this weekend, and about half could end with a finish. As always, I will be picking out my favorite battles from the card and breaking them down to give the best bet. All bets are per BetMGM.
Prelims
Sato vs. Gorimbo Odds
Takashi Sato -110; Themba Gorimbo -110
Gorimbo is coming off a loss in his debut earlier this year in February. He lost to A.J. Fletcher in the second round by submission. Gorimbo has never lost back-to-back in his career, and I’m sure the hard-hitting Sato is ready to break that trend. Sato is currently on a three-fight skid, and the overly patient power puncher will have to rely again on his judo to keep him upright long enough to land his signature straight left. Sato averages 2.28 significant strikes landed per minute, absorbs 4.25 significant strikes per minute, and uses a lot of movement to stay on the outside and look to counter with his straight power left. Sato can shut the lights out instantly but historically has difficulty dealing with wrestlers/grapplers. His takedown defense sits at a 60% rate, but the stat that isn’t listed is how many times he doesn’t get up once he gets taken down. Many of his opponents have succeeded by taking Sato down and racking up control time and points while hunting for submissions. Belal Muhammad was able to secure his first and only submission win. Sato is a liability once his back gets on the mat, and for that reason, I am going to back Gorimbo in this coin-flip because of his toughness and ability to wrestle. He boasts a 100% takedown accuracy and averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes.
Bet: Themba Gorimbo ML -110
Hooper vs. Fiore Odds
Chase Hooper +110; Nick Fiore -130
This fight is between two highly skilled grapplers. One has experience in the UFC at the highest level, and one fought Jay Ellis twice. Ellis is 15-98 currently and still helping the rising stars of the regional scene create highlight tapes. Hooper fills the role as the experienced grappler and newcomer Fiore is making his second appearance in the Octagon after suffering his first professional loss earlier this year. Fiore is a jiujitsu black belt and represents the New England cartel. His teammates and camp are why I believe he’s in the UFC, to begin with, and after watching his debut fight, I wouldn’t be surprised if he thinks he could walk through Hooper this weekend. The problem is that the little boy that entered the octagon back in 2018 is no longer little and has started to fight with a chip on his shoulder. Hooper has grown up in the ufc octagon and has shown flashes of greatness but almost always displays toughness and grit rather than skill. Hooper entered the UFC with professional-level jiujitsu in the body of a high school freshman, and finally, this weekend, I believe we get to see the boy become a man. The pick is Hooper as the known commodity against Fiore, who comes from a good team, but like Hooper once did, he will have to learn on the job and realize that this isn’t Ellis and the regional scene.
Bet: Chase Hooper ML +110
Cosce vs. Urbina Odds
Orion Cosce -115; Gilbert Urbina -105
Another exciting matchup between grapplers occurs when Cosce faces Urbina. Urbina is making his official UFC debut after coming up short against Bryan Battle in the Ultimate Fighter finale last year. He was a short-notice replacement for Tresean Gore, who had beaten him previously in the semifinal bout. Urbina would start hot but would eventually be stopped in the second round by submission. Urbina is on a two-fight losing streak and looking to make a statement with this debut. Cosce is a good challenge because he implores a similar game plan blending wrestling and chaotic moments that lead to the occasional knockout. Outside of his wrestling, Cosce’s best quality is his ability to walk through fire and outlast his opponents after they’ve gassed out. Urbina’s best quality is his grappling, as he averages nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes and pushes at a high pace. The problem is that Cosce has all the tools to match Urbina and has experience against stricter competition which will make the difference in a close fight. From a betting perspective, I’m going to side with the known fighter, and if the debutant proves me wrong, then so be it, but the difference in skill sets isn’t much, and the experience that Cosce has will make the difference.
Bet: Orion Cosce ML -115
Maheshate vs. Borshchev Odds
Hayisaer Maheshate +140; Viacheslav Borshchev -170
The featured prelim of the night features two exciting world-class strikers. Borshchev and Maheshate will be a treat, as both fighters are out for knockouts and don’t look to grapple much. Borshchev is a former K1 superstar and specialist in the striking department. He may only have nine MMA fights under his belt, but slavaclaus has a lifetime of experience, and because he kick-boxed for most of his professional career, there isn’t much that surprises him. He fights out of Team Alpha Male under the watchful eye of Urijah Faber. Since joining the UFC in 2022 officially, Slava has fought three times and has lost two by decision. His wrestling was exposed in those fights, and he could never get his striking going. Fighting Slava is like fighting a well-known grappler, and you more or less know where they want to take the fight to have success. For Slava to have success, he needs to keep the fights standing. The danger he presents on the feet is evident if he can turn two well-known strikers like Mike Davis and Marc Diakese into grapplers. I do expect Maheshate to be well-rounded but not to turn into a wrestler when he’s matched up with an opponent who’s willing to strike. Maheshate averages 2.59 significant strikes landed, attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes, and defends 45% of takedowns coming his way. Both fighters have a good arsenal of strikes, but I believe Borshchev knows how to use and blend those weapons slightly better than Maheshate. Slava is well-polished and has been in over 200 fights if you count his amateur record. Maheshate is well-rounded and comes out of China, which means he’s knowledgeable and perhaps can even win this fight. Still, from a betting perspective, I will side with Borshchev because he’s the cleaner striker, and in a gunfight, it’s the more accurate shooter that gets the kill.
Bet: Viacheslav Borshchev ML -170/Borshchev by KO/TKO or submission +135
Main Card
Fialho vs. Buckley Odds
Andre Fialho +185; Joaquin Buckley -225
Buckley will debut in a new division this weekend, and to help make the debut exciting, Fialho steps in as his dance partner. Andre is coming off a loss to Muslim Salikhov, and in true Fialho fashion, he brought the heat and, for the second time in a row, went out in his shield. Fialho fought at a blinding pace in 2022 and fought five times in six months. Only one fight has gone to decision in his UFC career thus far. Fialho averages eight minutes of fit time, 3.17 significant strikes landed per minute, and attempts zero takedowns. Fialho fights aggressively, and his best round is often the first round. He tapers off in the later rounds because all of the punches and strikes he throws are with maximum effort. That style pays well and leads to fighting bonuses and waking up in an ambulance.
Similarly, Buckley has massive power in his strikes and, like Fialho, performs best in the first and second rounds. Buckley has won his fights in the UFC by knockout 73% of the time. He averages nine and half minutes of fight time, 3.87 significant strikes landed per minute, and 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. There will be fireworks in this fight, but amid chaos, if Buckley wants to win, he will need to change levels and mix in takedowns. Fialho has a 71% takedown defense. If the fight gets out of the first round, the chances of landing a takedown become easier for Buckley. Fialho is the better boxer, and Buckley is the better athlete. From a betting perspective, there is value in either fighter getting the win in the first round. The likelihood is that Buckley fights cautiously and decides to counterstrike because Fialho never takes a back step and fights with intense forward pressure. A knockout could occur in either direction, but I’m going to side with Buckley as the better athlete because he can utilize his grappling to nullify the power of Fialho.
Bet: Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO or submission -105
Johnson vs. Ferreira Odds
Michael Johnson +135; Diego Ferreira -165
Johnson is possibly the most frustrating fighter to follow. He’s the Ultimate Fighter 12 runner-up, and coming into the ufc, Johnson was a highly touted prospect because of his athleticism and willingness to scrap. At 36, Johnson is doing enough to hang around in the UFC and giving the fans what they want every time he’s in the octagon. He’s 2-3 in his last five, but you can make an argument that the Jamie Mullarkey fight maybe should’ve gone his way. After beating a lackluster Marc Diakese, Johnson looked good and had flashes of his old days. For Johnson, I don’t think it’s ever been a factor of his athleticism and more so that he hit a mental wall and, maybe now in the late stages of his career, has finally begun to get over the hump mentally. Ferreira has been in the UFC since 2014, so like Johnson, he is a veteran and has had ups and downs in his career. He is well-rounded and dangerous on the ground with jiujitsu. Early in Ferreira’s career, he was a killer, and his pace and aggression never seemed to waiver, but as of late, he seems to fade the deeper the fight gets, and his opponents have been able to capitalize and fine finishes. Diego is still looking for a win since he sent Anthony Pettis to the PFL in 2020, and he has been sent to the shadow realm in his last two fights after starting strong. Ferreira is still better than most of Johnson’s opponents recently, and if this fight gets to the ground, Johnson will be in real trouble. Still, the power, boxing understanding, and 80% takedown defense should be enough to keep Johnson in this fight, and once Diego starts to fade, look for Johnson to find a finish.
Bet: Michael Johnson ML +135
Dern vs. Hill Odds
Mackenzie Dern -180; Angela Hill +150
A classic striker vs. grappler matchup is what we have in the main event between Hill and Dern. Hill, similar to Michael Johnson, has been in the ufc for quite some time, she’s had flashes of greatness, but a string of split decisions and close fights have never let her career take off. Still, she continues to grind and has made a name for herself as a commentator for the UFC and other regional organizations. Hill has always been a grinder and usually makes all of her fights ugly, taking her opponents into deep waters. She has finished in her resume, but most of her wins (67%) and losses (86%) have come by decision. She has a 77% takedown defense and the experience to keep this fight standing, but for how long, and once it does get to the canvas, can she get up? Hill has never been knocked out, and in this match, she won’t have to worry about knockout power, but she will have to worry about the razor’s edge that is Dern’s jiujitsu. In the fight game, there are MMA fighters, brawlers, technicians and specialists. Dern is a specialist, the type of jiujitsu fighter that dominates the way Damien Maia did when he fought in the ufc. She doesn’t do much with her stand-up, but it has improved with each fight, and it’s clear what her game plan is from the start. Dern is willing to stand and trade, but the longer she does that, the uglier a fight can get for her, so I expect her to limit the striking in this matchup and take advantage of the fact that Hill has been submitted before. None of those fighters were named Dern, who should be able to handle Hill on the ground with ease. From a betting perspective, I can see Hill being successful early with stuffing the takedowns, but if she’s unable to hurt Dern in any way and finds herself on the ground. She will have a long night, and dern will cruise to a decision win or a submission win in the third or fourth round.
Bet: Mackenzie Dern by submission or decision -165/Dern by submission +175
