After dominating the latter half of the 2010s, the AFC has failed to capture either of the last two Super Bowls. This season, the conference boasts a long list of viable Super Bowl contenders and is favored over the NFC to take home the Lombardi Trophy, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The latest AFC Championship odds have the Buffalo Bills as +350 favorites to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the infamous early ‘90s heartbreak. These Bills felt their own heartbreak last season when they fell, 42-36, to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. The overtime thriller left Buffalo in agony, but the team re-loaded by adding eight-time pro bowler Von Miller to its defense.

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Following the Bills are the aforementioned Chiefs at +500. Kansas City had spent a few seasons as the class of the conference, but they were dethroned in 2022 by the upstart Bengals in the AFC Championship game. Now, without Tyreek Hill, it will be a battle just to escape the gauntlet that is the AFC West. 

Don’t believe that the AFC West is a gauntlet? Well, next in line with +850 AFC Championship odds are the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos. The Chargers were a trendy longshot last season, but they missed the playoffs entirely. Still, Justin Herbert is one of the most talented gunslingers in the NFL, and LA added Khalil Mack to get after the division’s elite quarterbacks. 

Denver already trotted out a stout defense, but now the team gets to hand Russell Wilson the keys after trading an arm and a leg for the Super Bowl winning QB. The Chargers and the Broncos have made it clear that they won’t stand idly by and let the Chiefs make mincemeat of the entire division again.

Rounding out the top five is the Cleveland Browns. The Browns’ fascinating offseason will make for great television this fall, but on paper, this team is legit. Of course, there is a ton of uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson’s status, and that will ultimately determine Cleveland’s place in the AFC. 

What team is favored to win the AFC Championship? 

Here are the odds for each team to win the AFC title, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Team

AFC Championship Odds

Buffalo Bills

+350

Kansas City Chiefs

+500

Los Angeles Chargers

+850

Denver Broncos

+850

Cleveland Browns

+1000

Indianapolis Colts

+1200

Baltimore Ravens

+1200

Cincinnati Bengals

+1300

Tennessee Titans

+1500

Miami Dolphins

+2000

New England Patriots

+2200

Las Vegas Raiders

+2500

Pittsburgh Steelers

+4400

Jacksonville Jaguars

+4400

New York Jets

+8500

Houston Texans

+10000


Why do the Buffalo Bills have the best AFC Championship Odds?

The Tennessee Titans earned the AFC’s top seed last season, the Kansas City Chiefs have controlled the conference for several years and the Cincinnati Bengals represented the conference in last year’s Super Bowl. So, why are the Buffalo Bills favored?

The Bills are loaded, and they got better in the offseason. There were a few notable departures like Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll and WR Cole Beasley, but Buffalo re-tooled. They added WR Jamison Crowder to replace Beasley, guard Rodger Saffold to improve their much-maligned running game and edge-rusher Von Miller to make life miserable for the AFC East’s young quarterbacks. 

Additionally, the AFC East pales in comparison to the AFC West, where the Bills’ biggest hurdles sit. Three of the four teams with the best AFC Championship odds hail from the AFC West. Only one can win the division and get home-field advantage in the playoffs, making it especially difficult for the others to make a deep playoff run. 

The same goes for the AFC North, where the Browns, Ravens and Bengals will undoubtedly beat each other to a pulp throughout the season. Throw in the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have never finished below .500 under Mike Tomlin, and you’ve got a brutal path to success.

The AFC East isn’t a cakewalk, but the Bills have racked up an 11-1 record against the division over the last two seasons. Winning the division is not equal to winning the AFC, but it does increase the likelihood that Buffalo earns home-field advantage. The Bills have faltered on the road in the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.

Betting on a conference favorite might feel a little gross, but +350 isn’t bad value. Heading into last season, the Chiefs’ odds fell to as low as +200 to win the conference title. From 2013-2020, the eventual AFC Champion’s preseason odds sat between +125 and +350, according to Sports Odds History. The Bengals broke the streak last year, however, as their AFC Championship odds came in at +8000 during the preseason.

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Long shot bet for odds to win AFC Championship 

I wanted so badly to pick the Colts or the Titans as my longshot AFC title pick. The problem is that I’d have trouble sleeping at night advising anyone to roll with this version of Matt Ryan or any version of Ryan Tannehill in a conference jam-packed with quarterback talent.

To be honest, as I scanned through AFC Championship odds, I didn’t love any longshots. Or maybe I loved too many longshots? The Bills are loaded on both sides of the ball, the Chiefs are the Chiefs, the other AFC West squads have tantalizing QBs, the AFC North is as hard-nosed as ever and the AFC South gives its two best teams the easiest path to the playoffs.

The most intriguing proposition is the Buffalo Bills at +350, but betting favorites lacks gusto. Let’s take a closer look at the Baltimore Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens +1200 for AFC Title odds

It’s practically impossible to find a “longshot” without any flaws, and the Ravens do have some, but Baltimore checks a lot of the right boxes. They don’t have any glaring holes other than their current wide receiver situation – which could change throughout the offseason – and they were historically unhealthy in 2021. The Ravens will benefit from the return of a lot of impact players this season. 

From a scheduling perspective, Baltimore will look to cash in on cross-division matchups with the AFC East and NFC South. The AFC East is tough, but they’ll take on the Bills in Baltimore, and the NFC South is one of the league’s weaker divisions aside from Tom Brady’s Bucs.

The last time this team was healthy, it went 11-5 and won a playoff game. With a still-electric former MVP running the show, a solid defense that got better in the draft and a healthy roster, I’m comfortable backing the Ravens at +1200.