“Bengals +3.5” means that the Bengals can lose by up to three points while still winning the bet. At -110 odds, bettors wager $110 for every $100 they wish to win.
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the Bengals easily have the better quarterback in this game in Joe Burrow, who is No. 2 (behind only Aaron Rodgers) in composite expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (0.165, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Of all the No. 1 seeds in recent memory, the Titans are the weakest, and No. 1 seeds have generally been overrated in this spot. In the Divisional Round, underdogs are 23-12-1 ATS against the No. 1 seed.
And this year the Bengals are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Pick: Bengals +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Limit: +3 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Divisional Round Odds
The 49ers looked good against the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend, and some of the injury concerns they had exiting that game have dissipated: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb, shoulder) and linebacker Fred Warner (ankle) both practiced fully Wednesday, and edge rusher Nick Bosa (concussion) got in a limited session. All three seem likely to play this weekend.
And head coach Kyle Shanahan is 10-3 ATS as a road underdog with Garoppolo.
The 49ers are tempting, and it would not be a surprise if they won outright.
But they are on short rest (Sunday to Saturday), and the Packers are well rested. For his career, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 12-5-1 ATS off the bye.
On top of that, the Packers are probably the healthiest they’ve been all year with the recent return of left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and expected returns of cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and wide receiver Randall Cobb (core).
Finally, Rodgers is at home, where he’s a nice 69-37-4 ATS for his career. This year, he’s 7-1 ATS at Lambeau Field. Only once has Rodgers had a sub-.500 ATS record at home: 2008, his first season as a starter.
Pick: Packers -6 (-108) at FanDuel Limit: -6.5 (-110)
As of writing, this line is +1.5 and +2 at all other sportsbooks, so there’s notable line-shopping value in betting this at DraftKings.
This past weekend, the Bills played the first “perfect game” ever in NFL history.
Quarterback Josh Allen was otherworldly with 21-of-25 passing for 308 yards and five touchdowns and 6-66-0 rushing, and in Week 5 he was a near-perfect 315-3-0 passing and 11-59-1 rushing against the Chiefs in an emphatic 38-20 road win.
Allen is 10-5-2 ATS as a road underdog, and Chief quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a mediocre 9-10 ATS at home since last year.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Limit: +1.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is the Chief Strategy Officer of FTN Network and a betting and fantasy analyst who focuses on the NFL, including the draft. He also dabbles in player props for NBA, NHL, and MLB. Before joining FTN, he was the Editor-in-Chief at FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter: @MattFtheOracle.