A good chunk of the 2021 NFL season is behind us, and it may as well be a three-quarterback race for NFL Most Valuable Player odds. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes opened as the betting favorite NFL MVP odds, but after some surprising struggles including consecutive losses to the Bills and Titans, Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys QBs Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott are +400 co-favorites for odds to win NFL MVP.
Murray and Prescott are both having career years for their franchises, who are a combined 12-1 in the standings and are two top contenders in the NFC. Murray’s squad is undefeated and have beaten some top teams in the NFL like the Rams, Browns, Vikings and Titans. Prescott, on the other hand, is coming off a bye with the Cowboys after outlasting the Patriots in overtime in Foxborough. Both would be great choices at this juncture for 2021 NFL MVP odds.
Not far behind those two is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen at +450, who was also on bye in Week 7 and had another stat-filled night in Tennessee despite the Bills taking a loss. Allen was a finalist for NFL MVP last year and opened at +1200 odds to take the hardware this year. Mahomes has dropped to +4000 for odds to win NFL MVP after throwing his ninth interception in a loss to Tennessee.
Below, I’ll break down the latest NFL MVP odds movement and why Murray and Prescott should be the co-favorites for odds to win NFL MVP.
For now, here are the top 15 players listed at BetMGM for NFL MVP odds — you can find the full list of candidates at the sportsbook.
Who will win 2021 NFL MVP?
These are the current odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP, per BetMGM.
Now that we’re seven weeks into the season and we’ve seemingly witnessed highs and lows of each franchise, the landscape for NFL MVP makes a lot of sense when you look at the standings and the Most Valuable Player odds. It's telling that when you look at the top 15 options for NFL MVP odds that 13 of the top 15 options are quarterbacks.
Each player in the top five on the oddsboard is on a team with a winning record and leads their respective divisional standings. It’s not rocket science -- If your team plays well, the quarterback is going to shine.
The biggest NFL MVP odds movement we’ve seen since the start of the season has to be with Kyler Murray. The Cardinals QB opened at +2500 for odds to win NFL Most Valuable Player is all the way down to +400. Murray doesn’t have the eye-popping stats that you’re accustomed to when looking at MVP candidates, but his elusiveness and completion percentage is single-handedly winning games for Arizona. He leads the NFL with a 73.5% completion percentage and is top 15 in the league in rushing touchdowns… as a quarterback.
Aside from Murray, Titans running back Derrick Henry continues to climb up the leaderboard for odds to win NFL MVP and is now eigth on the oddsboard at +1600 to win NFL MVP. Henry has 839 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through seven games with Colts on deck, a team that kept him out of the endzone in Week 3.
As for who has dropped in the odds, look no further than Patrick Mahomes. After opening as the +600 fave, he’s since dropped to +4000 for NFL MVP odds. These are the largest NFL MVP odds for Mahomes he’s ever had in his career as a starting NFL quarterback. This is either the best buy-high scenario in NFL MVP betting odds history or we’re seeing the demise of a 2021 NFL MVP case die in front of our eyes. Mahomes already has nine interceptions in 2021, which surpasses his total INTs thrown just in 2020 with six.
Why Are Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott NFL MVP Favorites?
There are a few obvious reasons for why Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott are co-favorites to win NFL Most Valuable Player award and it starts with the NFL standings. The Cardinals are the only undefeated team in the NFL with legit wins over the Rams, Browns, 49ers and Titans. Two of those wins are likely weighted more than others with the Rams looking legit in the NFC and having to win in Cleveland without head coach Kliff Kingsbury.
Statistically, Murray offers a different dynamic than a lot of quarterbacks because of the receiving threats at his disposal and his ability to scramble for touchdowns or extra yards. 17 passing touchdowns isn’t anything to dismiss and pairing that with three rushing touchdowns while completing over 73% of passes is worthy of an NFL MVP. Murray could add another MVP-sealing win over the Packers on Thursday Night Football.
The only issue with Murray’s case is there’s another quarterback in Dallas who is nearly matching him throw-for-throw in impressiveness. Dak Prescott has 16 touchdown passes and in five of six games this season, he’s thrown three or touchdowns to his plethora of high-end receiving options. All of this while coming off a devastating ankle injury that cost him most of the 2020 season.
If you’re looking to poke holes into Prescott’s NFL MVP award candidacy, the knock would likely start with the Cowboys’ strength of wins. Three wins over below-average teams like the Eagles, Giants and Panthers could be a detriment for Prescott in the long term but for now, Prescott is playing the best football of his career. If Prescott and the Cowboys topple the Vikings with a strong offensive showing, Dak will still be right there with Murray for NFL MVP odds.
How to Bet on NFL MVP Odds
Understanding NFL futures odds and other season-long betting markets can be worthwhile to invest in as they can be very lucrative with profits. One of the best examples of this is NFL Most Valuable Player odds because they fluctuate from week-to-week and can change drastically on a respective week’s results.
At a sportsbook like BetMGM, you’ll see NFL MVP odds laid out like this:
The numbers listed beside them are considered American odds and would determine payouts for winning $100 bets. The player with the lowest numbers beside them would be considered the betting favorites. In this case, it’s Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott.
Let’s say you bet $100 on Kyler Murray for NFL MVP odds and he wins the award. Your sportsbook would pay you $500 to your betting account - your original $100 is returned and you’d get $400 in profit.
If you think Patrick Mahomes will win the 2021 NFL MVP award and you were to bet $100 on him, that would payout $1,700 to your sportsbook account. Your $100 original bet is refunded and you’d receive $1,600 in winnings for your correct bet.
Known as the “NFL Touchdown Prop God”, Gilles Gallant brings his years of betting experience and wealth of sports knowledge to the FTN family. Hailing from Canada and known as @GDAWG5000 on Twitter, he is an expert in NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops and any bet that offers plus money. Bonne Chance!