Although sides and totals are still king when it comes to betting on the NFL, player props have become increasingly popular for the casual and seasoned bettor. Sportsbooks seemingly have new NFL player prop offerings every year and trying to find an edge in those markets can be very lucrative.
For the 2021 season, while I’m known as the touchdown prop specialist, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for ALL NFL player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include player prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes and so many more.
NFL player prop bets - Latest expert picks
Each week, I’ll be giving out my three favorite NFL player prop plays and will come out on Fridays for the entire regular season and playoffs. All bettors should make sure to shop around and get the best lines by using the FTNBets Prop Shop.
For the 2021 season, my record for these props is 21 wins, 12 losses and +9.1U in profit. These bets can also be found with the NFL Bet Tracker. Had you blindly tailed me each week, you’d have made profit in 8 of 11 weeks. Not too shabby.
Normally, this spot is reserved for the VIP prop of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts over rushing yards. However, with his sprained ankle, sportsbooks are being cautious with his props, and most are off the board as of this writing. That means even if he does play, there’s a risk he may limit his running, which is not good because his line is typically between 45 to 49 yards. That’s why I’m audibling to a different quarterback who has such a low O/U rushing-yard line that I thought I was misreading. I’m banking on Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson to use his legs in Week 13 and get at least 13 rushing yards vs. the 49ers.
Wilson has obviously been “off” when it comes to throwing the football since returning from a broken finger, but his legs still seem to work fine. In three games since returning from injury, Wilson has rushed for 13 yards in two of three games, and he’s done it in four of eight games overall in 2021. He also ran for 26 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers in Week 4.
On paper, the 49ers have a good defense, but they’ve been getting shredded by quarterbacks running the ball this season. San Francisco ranks dead-last in the NFL by allowing 298 rushing yards on 50 attempts and four TDs to quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, Wilson has also rushed for at least 13 yards vs. the 49ers in nine straight games, dating back to 2017.
Although Antonio Gibson hasn’t had the traditional “breakout” like was predicted before the regular season, he’s still been a serviceable back for the Washington Football Team. With backup and pass-catching RB J.D. McKissic out with injury, Gibson may have to take on more of a third-down role down the stretch. That’s why I love him to get at least four catches when he faces the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13. The odds are +140 at Caesars.
Washington just got done playing a home game where it featured both running backs very heavily in the offensive game plan. Gibson had 29 carries for 119 yards and also had 7 receptions for 35 yards. Why the latter stat is important is it showed the Football Team including Gibson in the passing game more, especially after McKissic left with injury. The duo ultimately combined for 12 catches in the win over Seattle.
Facing a defense like the Raiders should provide many opportunities for Gibson to rush and receive this weekend because Las Vegas has given up 64 catches to RB this season, ranked 24th in NFL. That’s an average of 5.9 catches per game. If Washington is making a late playoff push, it can’t afford a loss this week in an attempt to keep pace with other NFC playoff competition. Look for this to be a kitchen-sink game for Gibson as Washington’s best offensive weapon.
I’ve had a nice run recently by banking on incompetence of quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield are just a few of my plus-money contributors that I’ve bet on recent weeks and now, we’re turning our sights to the Indianapolis Colts. Carson Wentz is my next choice of QB to throw a pick and we got him at +135 at DraftKings.
Say what you will about the Texans, but give some credit to the defense this season. The Texans allow 26.5 points per game but still rank sixth in total takeaways, and most of that is because of interceptions. Houston’s secondary has been opportunistic this season and with 14 interceptions, that’s the third-best mark in the NFL.
As careful as Wentz has been with the ball this season (5 INT in 11 games) and having a safety blanket in RB Jonathan Taylor, the former Eagles QB still has bonehead moments where he tries to force a play. We’ve been witness to it when the Colts faced the Bucs and Titans and Wentz inexplicably would try to throw the ball away with his off-hand or force a pass into double-coverage. Anyone who has watched Wentz’s career knows he has turnover tendencies. At +150, these odds seem a bit inflated and I’m happy to take a stab.
Known as the “NFL Touchdown Prop God”, Gilles Gallant brings his years of betting experience and wealth of sports knowledge to the FTN family. Hailing from Canada and known as @GDAWG5000 on Twitter, he is an expert in NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops and any bet that offers plus money. Bonne Chance!