Although sides and totals are still king when it comes to betting on the NFL, player props have become increasingly popular for the casual and seasoned bettor. Sportsbooks seemingly have new NFL player prop offerings every year and trying to find an edge in those markets can be very lucrative.
For the 2021 season, while I’m known as the touchdown prop specialist, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for ALL NFL player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include player prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes and so many more.
NFL player prop bets - Latest expert picks
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I gave out my three favorite NFL player prop plays on Fridays and was fairly successful. For the 2021 season (including playoffs), my record for these props is 39 wins, 24 losses for +18.2U in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week, you’d have made profit in 16 of 21 weeks.
Now, with it being Super Bowl 56, I can’t just limit myself to three O/U player props. There’s just too many to choose from. Instead of narrowing it down, let’s not leave any bullets in the chamber and fire on all of them. As always, all bettors should make sure to shop around and get the best prop betting lines by using the FTNBets Prop Shop.
Coming out of the gate with a kicker prop for Super Bowl 56 is not my usual strategy with weekly player props, but I like my chances for Matt Gay of the Los Angeles Rams to get at least eight points off his foot. The O/U is 7.5 at Bet365 and I got the OVER at -110.
Although the Rams kicker hasn’t been as impeccable this postseason as his Bengals counterpart, Gay has had ample opportunity to put up points. In three playoff games, Gay has contributed a total of 30 points to the winning cause and scored at least eight in each contest. His accuracy is where it gets tricky, as he’s missed a field goal in each of the last two games with one being 47 yards in the Divisional Round and then another at 54 yards in the NFC Conference Championship game. It’s worth noting he still did kick the game-winning field goals in both games so I’m willing to give him a pass for those faults.
Then when you look at how many drives the Rams have had in opposing territory through three playoff games (20) and how he performed during the regular season (32 of 34 FG, 48 of 49 XPA), I’d be shocked if this falls UNDER.
I’m a moth to the flame for plus-money bets, and when I saw Rams running back Cam Akers at plus money just to get three receptions, I had to lock it in immediately. Akers is a walking product of modern medicine and rehabilitation after suffering an Achilles tear during the offseason and is now another weapon in Sean McVay’s arsenal heading into Super Bowl 56.
The second-year RB has shown bursts in his limited time back in the Rams backfield with a running play of 15 yards here or a 40-yard catch there but has yet to really put together a complete game. I think this changes in the Super Bowl because Los Angeles has shown they seem to fully trust Akers handling a big workload. He’s gotten 54 carries in three playoff games while playing nearly double the snaps of Sony Michel, who’s only gotten 24 carries thus far.
What does this have to do with Akers receptions? Well, it’s hard to cash a bet if the player is on the sideline. With two weeks of rest and preparation, Akers should see the majority of snaps in the backfield and ample opportunity to receive the ball on a Bengals defense that ranked 28th in completions to running backs during the season. Cinci also allowed two of three starting RBs they faced in the playoffs in Jerick McKinnon and Josh Jacobs to each have three or more catches. At plus money, this is a no-brainer play from me.
I’ve had a nice run during the regular season by banking on the incompetence of quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill (x2), Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes (x2) and Baker Mayfield are just a few of the plus-money contributors that I’ve bet on throughout the year. Now, with it being Super Bowl 56 and cashing on it last week, we’re going right back to the quarterback in Los Angeles and bank on Stafford to throw an interception at home vs the Bengals.
After throwing another interception vs. the 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship, Stafford still has gunslinger tendencies that can be exposed. He finished the regular season tied with the most interceptions by a quarterback with 17. The latter stat alone should make bettors consider this betting prop, even if it's juiced to -130.
The Bengals’ secondary has been frisky this postseason and has made key interceptions in crucial moments. When they hosted the Raiders, QB Derek Carr turned it over on the last drive. When they went to Tennessee, they cashed this prop on the opening play thanks to Ryan Tannehill. Even Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes got in the act with two tipped passes that led to back-breaking interceptions. You should also consider Joe Burrow to throw an interception as well at -120 if Stafford’s odds scare you away because even as great as “Joe Cool” has been this postseason, he’s thrown a pick in back-to-back games. Long live the interception prop!
Despite it being a “nice” number, this is likely one of the sharper lines for a player’s receiving prop going into Super Bowl 56. Still, given his talent and quarterback, I have to back Bengals WR Tee Higgins to have at least 70 receiving yards vs. the Rams. The second-year receiver may have taken a backseat to the Ja'Marr Chase hype train in Cincinnati but he’s still a quality WR who can pick up a lot of yardage. In the last two playoff games, Higgins has 199 yards receiving on 13 catches and 19 targets.
With Chase likely drawing so much attention from the Rams secondary, Higgins could draw upward of 8-9 targets in a game where it’s relatively close. However, if this game turns into a Rams blowout, Higgins could be in line for a huge day. In the Bengals last four losses, the Bengals WR has averaged at least 106 yards receiving in those outings.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow is going to throw the ball a lot. He already has 105 pass attempts through three games and might top the 40-attempt mark if they trail again in the second half. Give me all the Higgins stock.
When looking at this prop at Bet365, Joe Mixon is technically the co-favorite with Cam Akers, but based on volume and snap counts, Mixon should be the lone favorite to lead Super Bowl 56 in rushing yards. Mixon has had 42 rushing attempts through three games and while he’s only put up 195 yards on the ground, that output is still better than anything the Rams have shown running the ball this postseason.
The Rams lead the playoffs with 97 rushing attempts and only have 19 more total rushing yards than the Bengals. Some of that could be attributed to facing teams like the Bucs and 49ers, who have strong run defenses, but most of it has been the Rams not being as effective with Cam Akers running the ball as opposed to catching the ball. They’re only putting up 2.7 yards per carry since Akers returned to the lineup. My point is, Mixon could have a below-average day and still end up with more rushing yards than Akers or Michel by default.
Known as the “NFL Touchdown Prop God”, Gilles Gallant brings his years of betting experience and wealth of sports knowledge to the FTN family. Hailing from Canada and known as @GDAWG5000 on Twitter, he is an expert in NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops and any bet that offers plus money. Bonne Chance!