The weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to the Daytona for the GoBowling 235. But we aren’t on the main track for this race. For NASCAR betting purposes, I also use the roval at Charlotte along with the road courses at Watkins Glen and Sonoma for a larger sample size
Of course, the betting research process is more than just simply looking at past finishes. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for all of the road course races over the last five NASCAR seasons.
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Martin Truex has been one of the best road course drivers over the last five years. He has three wins, five top-two finishes, and has only finished outside the top 10 twice over the last 10 NASCAR road races. Truex is currently +450 to win on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The only other driver to win multiple races on road courses over the last five seasons is Chase Elliott. Perhaps more importantly, one of his wins came on the Charlotte Roval, which is the most similar tract to Sunday’s race. You can get a good price on a top-three finish for Elliott right now at +115 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kevin Harvick is also no slouch on road courses. Over his last 10 races on road courses, he has the second-highest weighted driver rating and has eight top-10 finishes. FoxBet is running an odds boost on either Harvick or Elliott to win at +300.
If you like to play head to heads, William Hill has a bunch of fun offerings. Clint Bowyer was really impressive at each of the last two Charlotte Roval races, finishing in the top five in both races. He’s currently +105 head-to-head against Kurt Busch on William Hill.
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