Diving deep on the Los Angeles Rams coaching and approach

A crucial element to projecting players in fantasy football is determining their role and the context of the team on which they operate. In this divisional series, we will explore the inner workings of each team. These writeups are loaded with beautiful data visualizations (brought to you by Anthony Amico ) that will expose the gears that push these NFL teams forward. When the Week 1 clock strikes kick-off, your coronation as fantasy kings or queens begins. Let’s dive into the Los Angeles Rams.

Los Angeles Rams Rams head coach: Sean McVay (2017-present; WAS OC 2014-2016)

Ever since his days as the offensive coordinator in Washington, McVay has authored some high-powered offensive attacks. Over his last five years, his offense has never finished lower than 12th in points scored. The aerial attack’s prowess has been a staple in his scheme. McVay’s offense has finished top-five in passing yards in three of the last four years. His quarterback has never finished lower than 11th in passing yards. After the Rams dropped to 9-7 last year, the franchise spent the offseason retooling their skill positions. With some new faces added to this productive cast of skill players, the Rams could be a top-five again in 2020.

Rams offensive coordinator: Kevin O’Connell (2020-present; WAS OC 2019; WAS passing game coordinator 2018)

Last year, Jared Goff plummeted down the fantasy ranks to QB22 in fantasy points per game. This was a stark contrast to Goff’s previous two seasons under McVay as the QB9 and QB11 in fantasy points per game. Goff’s peripherals were still strong, finishing third in passing attempts and fourth in passing yards. The massive drop off for Goff was his passing touchdowns. After posting passing touchdown rate seasons of 5.7% and 5.9%, Goff’s rate fell to 3.5% last year. Goff was still efficient in the red zone finishing eighth in red zone completion percentage. Goff was rattled last year as his 30th ranking in clean pocket completion percentage suggests. The Rams offensive line allowed the 10th-most pressure last year. The Los Angeles line doesn’t have to return to its fourth and 12th ranking for the least pressure allowed for Goff to have a bounceback season.

Over the last three seasons, the Rams’ backfield has been a goldmine for fantasy production. The departed Todd Gurley was the RB1, RB1 and RB17 in PPR fantasy points per game over the last three years for McVay. In 2017-2018 Gurley’s usage was elite with the third- and fourth-most touches among running backs in those seasons. Last year, Gurley’s workload dropped to 18th in touches among runners. This proved that even if the workload is divided or diminished for a Rams running back, they can still be a 20 player at their position in fantasy. Gurley maintained his fantasy production on the heels of his hefty red-zone role. Last year, Gurley was third in red zone rushing attempts and ninth in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Even with a new running back taking the mantel from Gurley, the red-zone rushing won’t fall off the table. In McVay’s six years, his rushing attack has ranked fifth, first, first, 12th, fifth and eighth in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line.

Either Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson is likely the back to take the torch from Gurley this year. The Rams doubled down on the backfield this year, investing a second-round pick in Akers after drafting Henderson in the third round the year before. Despite a wretched offensive line and questionable skill players around him, Akers displayed a well-rounded three-down skill set at Florida State. Over his three collegiate seasons, Akers averaged 1,120 total yards and 23 receptions per year. Akers was also a plus pass protector allowing pressure only 0.04% of his collegiate pass-blocking reps. Henderson, unfortunately, had a mostly forgettable rookie season with only 43 touches. He also ran for 3.8 yards per carry and managed 6.2 yards per target. Digging deeper, Henderson did offer hope that beneath the surface, his playmaking ability was still present. On his 43 touches, Henderson evaded 19 tackles. Among players, rushers and receivers with 15 or more touches last year, Henderson ranked 13th in broken tackles per touch. Malcolm Brown lands a distant third in the pecking order. Brown’s 69 rushing attempts were a career-high. If the Rams are looking for a three-down back, Brown is a poor fit in this role. Brown has never garnered more than 11 targets in any NFL season. Whether Akers or Henderson, the lead back for the Rams will be a productive one this year for fantasy.

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp lead the receiver room this year. Woods has been a top-20 wide receiver in each of the past three years under McVay. In 2017-2019, Woods finished as the WR13, WR16 and WR19 in PPR fantasy points per game. Woods has been a volume monster over the last two years, especially with the seventh-most targets (269) among wideouts. The only hole in Woods’ game is his red-zone role where his teammate Kupp shines. Kupp has garnered 28 targets inside the 20 over his last 24 games played. Kupp started last season on a tear flashing his ceiling. In Weeks 1-8, Kupp was the WR2 in PPR fantasy points per game behind only Michael Thomas . In Weeks 9-17, Kupp’s production tailed off as the WR30 during that stretch. Whether personnel changes or Kupp wearing down the usage dipped was substantial as he saw more than six targets only twice and eclipsed 65 receiving yards once over the final eight games. Depending on the Rams’ plans for 2020, Kupp carries a wider range of outcomes than Woods.

The 2018 season was muddy regarding evaluating the target share for the third receiving option in this offense. That season, Woods, Brandin Cooks and Kupp were all at the height of their powers, but Kupp was limited to eight games because of injury. In 2017 and 2019, Sammy Watkins and Cooks each played 14 or more games as the deep complement to Woods and Kupp. In those two seasons, the third wideout option held a 13-14% target share. Josh Reynolds likely starts the year in this role with Van Jefferson on his heels for snaps.

The tight end position battle in Los Angeles will be an interesting one. Tyler Higbee ’s season-ending run has been well-documented dominance. In Weeks 13-17, Higbee had 84 or more receiving yards in each game. Over that stretch, Higbee was first in receiving yards, second in air yards and third in target share among tight ends. Higbee saw 13 of his team-leading 19 red zone in those five games. As dominant as Higbee was, his counterpart Gerald Everett was no slouch when injuries didn’t derail his play. In the seven games where Everett played 54% or higher snaps, he was a top-six fantasy scoring tight end in four of them. Everett hyperextended his knee in Week 12 before Higbee went on his scorching end of season run. Everett only played 7% of the snaps in one more game for the rest of the season. The Rams have a talented tight end depth chart, but it’s anyone’s guess who the starter is and their utilization this season.

Pace/pass rate/personnel The Rams have played faster than the league average in neutral and leading gamescripts, but it’s the team is down that McVay blazes a trail. Over the last three seasons, the Rams have never finished outside the top-10 in pace when trailing. In 2018 and 2019 the offense finished fourth and first in pace during negative gamescript. If the Rams defense backslides the play volume will go through the roof.

McVay’s pass-happy ways are evident over the last three seasons. In 2017 and 2019, the Rams were first and second in neutral-script passing and fifth and sixth in overall passing rate. The big shift for McVay over the last two seasons has been the continuing lean into pass only mode in negative gamescripts. In 2017 the Rams were passing on 60% of their plays when trailing. Over the last two years McVay has bumped that up to 70% (fifth) and 79%, which was tops in the league in 2019. McVay will toss the rushing play sheet aside when the Rams trail, but the defense will dictate how often that happens.

The Rams personnel shift last season was abrupt and traceable. In Weeks 1-8, the Rams were utilizing 11 personnel on 80% of their plays and 12 personnel on 11%. Their usage of three wideouts ranked second in the NFL while their use of two tight ends was 30th. Their use of three wide receiver sets was in line with 2018’s 89% (first) as well as their 12 personnel utilization, which was 8% (30th). Last year, Week 10 was the turning point and an Armageddon week for the offensive line. The Rams were already dealing with losing left guard Joseph Noteboom in Week 6 with ACL and MCL tears. In Week 10, the Rams lost starting center Brian Allen and 2018’s top run-blocking tackle Rob Havenstein for the year. In Weeks 11-17, the team moved away from their three wide receiver sets in favor of more 12 personnel. In Weeks 11-17, the Rams utilized 11 personnel on 63% of their snaps while hiking up 12 personnel to 34%, which ranked fourth in the NFL over that span. With the Rams returning all five of their starters this year, the days of three-receiver heavy sets could return in 2020.

Rams offensive scheme The wide receivers have ruled the day in McVay’s scheme, ranking fifth and sixth in the NFL in target share over the last two years with 64.4% and 66.7%. Last year looks like an outlier season for running backs in the passing game. In 2019 the Rams ranked last in the NFL in target share to the running back position with 10%. In McVay’s five previous seasons dating back to Washington, his runners saw 15.2-19.8% of the target pie. Look for McVay to reintegrate his running backs into the passing game in 2020.

In 2017 and 2018, the Rams passed inside the 20 on 51-52% of their plays. In 2019, Los Angeles went run-heavy near the goal line, pushing their running play percentage to 51%. Last year, the Rams ranked sixth in rushing rate when inside the red zone. If last year was an outlier because of injuries and personnel revisions, the Rams would move back to passing close to paydirt in 2020.

Rams defensive coordinator: Brandon Staley (2020-present)

Staley takes over as defensive coordinator as a relative unknown. He coached linebackers for the last three seasons under Vic Fangio with the Bears and then in Denver in 2019. The Rams ranked 10th in pass and rushing defensive DVOA last year. While this defense still has elite pieces in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey , there are equal questions.

Staley takes over a defense that has made significant changes in the offseason. The Rams lost 23 combined sacks with Dante Fowler , Clay Matthews and Cory Littleton all leaving town. The Rams also lost two starters in the secondary in Eric Weddle and slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman . The additions of linebacker Leonard Floyd and nose tackle A'Shawn Robinson will help create pressure and stop the run. Troy Hill took over alongside Jalen Ramsey last year and played extremely well on the outside. Last year Hill allowed a 43.1% catch rate and 64.5 passer rating. The Rams have enough talent at multiple levels and youth on their side that this defense can still be among the league’s best.

Diving deep on the Los Angeles Rams coaching and approach

Los Angeles Rams

Rams head coach: Sean McVay

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