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Today, MLBdream provides a brief breakdown of the game in his pick, with plenty of stats and reasoning for why it's his best MLB bet today. 

 

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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants: Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Ks -122 (FanDuel Sportsbook
Mets +126 @ Giants -148 Total 7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook

We’re headed back to the strikeout prop market Monday night in a matchup between the Mets and Giants. San Francisco is looking to snap a four-game losing streak after getting swept at home by the Padres over the weekend.

Alex Cobb takes the mound for the Giants trying to get his club back on track. Cobb enters Monday night with a career-best 28.1 K% and 12% SwStr% in 25.1 innings this season. The 34-year-old righty’s chase rate ranks in the 92nd percentile, and his K percentage sits in the 78th percentile. Cobb is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing a sinker 45% of the time and “the thing” (his splitter) 40% of the time. Cobb’s sinker carries a 28% K%, while his splitter has a 31.4% strikeout percentage.   

 

Overall, the Mets don’t strike out at a high rate. Their K% sits at 20% and is tied for the third-lowest in baseball. However, they have the second-most strikeouts in the majors against the sinker (the pitch Cobb throws the most). Cobb faced the Mets back in April and struck out four in 4.1 innings before exiting the game with a groin injury. He had only thrown 60 pitches, so it’s safe to assume he would have gotten his fifth K if not for the injury. It’s not a large sample, but the projected Mets lineup has a 30.6% K% versus Cobb. 

I was expecting the books to post a 5.5 in this one, but given Cobb’s bad luck and recent injuries, I’ll gladly take the 4.5 and take the over. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market. I’m projecting Cobb to pitch about six innings and finish with enough strikeouts to cash our bet.

Bet: Alex Cobb Over 4.5 -122
Bonus Bet: Giants -135 

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