We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 44 in Las Vegas. There are a couple spots that I feel good about in the props market but be sure to check out the rest of the FTN crew’s bets FTN Bets Tracker in case we add anything prior to fight night.
As always, I will give the bets that I have placed below based on where I see the most value in the betting odds and how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA betting Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Wells is extremely explosive, and four of his nine professional wins have come by knockout. He is going to have a power advantage against Jake Matthews who repeatedly leaves himself open to being countered. He keeps his hands low and overextends on his punches, and if Wells lands clean then he is likely going to sleep.
Pitolo should be the better minute winner in this matchup. He will have a speed and technical boxing advantage in this matchup over Dusko Todorovic. Additionally, I believe he is the more likely of the two fighters to land takedowns as well. Pitolo is untrustworthy in terms of his cardio and fight IQ, but I doubt Todorovic has the tools to finish him. I would be surprised if Pitolo does not win at least two rounds here and this is a great number if it hits the judges’ scorecards.
I just could not pass up this one at this number. I have some concerns with Puelles, but I expect him to land takedowns here against Chris Gruetzmacher. He is a black belt in BJJ and should have multiple opportunities to find a submission against a guy who has been submitted in three of his four professional losses.
Jon Kelly is a savvy daily fantasy sports player with years of experience across all major sports. He has over a dozen GPP wins across multiple sports and is ranked in the top 100 in MMA on RG rankings. He is an MMA contributor to FadeTheNoise and owner of FightNumbers.com where he provides free resources for MMA DFS players and sports bettors.