NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (3/30)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.

Also: We have launched a new NBA prop betting tool, so check that out.

Jae’Sean Tate OVER 11.5 Points

(-116, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 14.5 Points)

Several Houston Rockets players have already been shut down for the year, so that leaves lots of vacated minutes and usage for the remaining players. Additionally, Alperen Sengun is “unlikely to play,” which leaves us with even more minutes and usage to work with. Jae’Sean Tate’s line sits at 11.5 across the sportsbooks and I like the over there, but the over on both Jalen Green (20.5) and Kevin Porter (17.5) is also interesting as the model has both of those players 3-plus points over their current lines as well. 

Julius Randle OVER 21.5 Points

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 24.8)

It’s a great matchup here for Julius Randle against the Hornets, who continue to play fast and struggle defensively. It has been an up and down year for Randle, but over the last month he has been playing well, and his usage rates have been strong as he leads the team with a 32.6% usage rate over that time. Per our advanced DVP tool, Randle possesses six-player traits, and the Hornets rank in the bottom two in four of them and no better than 19 against any of the traits.