I’ll be here at FTN breaking down my favorite NBA prop bets all season. Using my model, I’ll determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks!
Brook Lopez o0.5 3-pointers made (-185 at DraftKings)
Projection: 1.5 3-pointers made
The model has Brook Lopez’s 3PM projection at 1.5, which means he is much more likely to hit two threes than zero. However, last year Lopez averaged four 3PA per game and shot 34% from behind the arc. If Lopez is going to have that kind of volume, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to cash this bet. I don’t even mind taking a stab at the over on 1.5 3PM on FanDuel at +190.
Russell Westbrook o8.5 rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)
Projection: 10.91 rebounds
It is always difficult to project out teams' roles and usages early in the year, especially when there’s so much roster turnover. That’s particularly the case for the Lakers. So, since Russell Westbrook is playing alongside more prominent rebounders, that makes his projection of over 10 boards a bit more fragile. Yet in four of his last five seasons, Westbrook has averaged 10+ rebounds, and we all know how much Russ loves to fill up the stat sheet. Look for that to continue in Los Angeles.
LeBron James averaged 25 points per game last year, but the Lakers went out and added several new players to serve as pure scorers in this offense. Therefore I think it makes sense to assume there will be nights where LeBron becomes more of a facilitator than a scorer. The minutes have also been a big topic of discussion from Coach Vogel this week, as he said LeBron will likely be in the mid-30s. The fact that this is even being discussed prior to the first game doesn’t bode well for LeBron playing tons of minutes. I’m taking the under on the King.
After becoming a full time DFS player while finishing up his college degree in 2018-19, Kyle quickly found a knack for not only qualifying for live finals, but also doing well in them. In those two years, Kyle won 9 live finals seats and in 2019 alone, placed in the top six in three different DFS site live linals, including winning $250,000 after finishing in 1st place at the FanDuel FantaSea event. While rising into the top 100 overall DFS RG player rankings in 2019, Kyle accumulated multiple five and six-figure scores across several sports. Kyle now looks to bring his knowledge of DFS to Fade The Noise along with his constantly evolving projections and unique player ratings that he uses to make his own lineups every day.