MLB Prop Tracker (May 6)
Welcome to the prop bet tracker. As MLB season gets into high gear, another way to get in on the action is to analyze the day’s best prop bets – from strikeouts to home runs, first to five runs to total bases logged.
Each day, we will try and identify a few picks that are ready to explode in the prop market.
Brandon Woodruff Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-167, BetMGM)
There’s a really fun set of rotations in baseball, and with Corbin Burnes healthy, combined with ace Woodruff, the Brewers’ staff is another one of those that can match you pitch for pitch. Woodruff has been incredible so far this year, and he gets an outstanding opportunity to face off against a Phillies team that is whiffing. Like a lot. They rank second-worst in baseball in strikeout rate (27.8%), and Woodruff has logged better than a strikeout per inning (40 in 35). Wanna get spicy? Take the juice and bet over 7.5 on FanDuel (+124).
Gerrit Cole Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
Betting the under is like betting on the “Don’t Come” line in craps – it sucks, it wipes the energy out of the table. When my buddies and I make our annual pilgrimage to our home away from home in Las Vegas, we may or may not, after a few vodka tonics, start firing the dice at the table at people that make this bet. Welp, c’est la vie, and I’m making that bet here. Look, Cole is friggin’ brilliant – he’s got 62 strikeouts on the season already, but this matchup is rough. The Astros clearly have espoused an offensive philosophy of putting the ball in play, and they rank as the league’s toughest team to strike out (19.6%).
Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+320, DraftKings)
This feels like the season where — pending health — Buxton may be putting altogether. The dude is flat ballin’ with seven home runs and four steals, and he has a wonderful matchup here against Jordan Lyles of the Rangers. The Rangers keep running the right hander out, and over 28 innings pitched, he’s been flat-out awful with a 50% hard-hit rate and over 2.5 home runs per nine innings pitched. There’s no surprise that he has a horrific ERA (7.39), FIP (6.14) and SIERA (4.82). With a 47.9% fly-ball rate, expect Buxton to pop one.