Same Game Parlay Optimizer - Best SGP Bets
The FTN Bets Same Game Parlay (SGP) tool is a parlay optimizer that simplifies the mystery behind the parlays to help you make the best bets more often.
There are two key advantages to using this tool:
- Find hidden edges
- Avoid challenging lines
Find the edge with the SGP Tool
With our Same Game Parlay Tool, users can easily spot these valuable edges by comparing the calculated true odds with the sportsbook's payouts.
The calculated true odds are based on projections from the elite staff at FTN Bets. We have projections for every major SGP prop market (points, assists, touchdowns, yards, etc.), which can then be compared to the live lines set by the sportsbooks (our SGP tool always has live odds).
The books will give you odds for your bet slip. Let’s say it ends up being +2500.
But if our tool tells you the true odds are +2000, then you’ve just discovered an edge.
And, of course, the reverse is true. If the book gives you odds at +2500, but you know the true odds are +3000, you might want to steer clear of the bet. Of course, SGPs are usually high-risk, high-reward to begin with, but no sports bettor wants to take on even more risk when running a parlay.
Correlation and Same Game Parlays
Our Same Game Parlay Optimizer tool also lets you know when a sportsbook has set a poor line based on correlation. Here’s a simple example: Let’s say that, when looked at individually, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yard over/under line is set at fair odds, as is Tyreek Hill’s receiving yard over/under.
But what if you combine them in SGP and choose “over” for both? Does the sportsbook properly account for the correlation in the SGP odds they give you?
Our tool does, so you’ll always know if the sportsbooks are giving you fair odds.
What makes this same game parlay calculator different from others on the market? Most same game parlay calculators use a standard formula that does not account for positive or negative correlation between the plays. Your typical SGP takes the odds of two separate events occurring independently of one another. If both legs of the parlay are at even money (+100), then each has a 50% chance of happening. In a standardized set of examples, your typical SGP would say the chances of those events happening together are 25%. They take the 50% odds of either leg hitting and multiply that by the 50% ods of the other leg hitting to get 25% chance of the parlay paying off.
The problem with this approach is that it does not account for how likely two events are to occur at the same time in a game. For example, the odds of two players both going over their point total in a high scoring game are greater than two key players coming in under in that same high total game. The odds of a point guard racking up a ton of assists and the leading scorer on the team scoring a lot of points is also highly correlated. The chances of those events occurring together can be higher or lower than random chance would dictate depending on the correlation between the two bets.
Rather than multiplying together the odds of each event occurring independently, our win percentage and true odds are based off the number of times the two events occur together in our random sample of simulations. When you enter the legs of your parlay into the calculator, it sends a query to our simulation sample set to find out what percentage of our simulations have both legs of that bet cashing. The simulations are based off of our FTN projections, so the resulting true odds go beyond telling you how often something will happen in a random sample. Instead they tell you how likely the two events are to occur together depending on how strong or weak the correlation is between the two bet types.
Check out our parlay calculator for more sports betting tools.