One of the most fun aspects of betting on golf is the weekly opportunity to find edges all the way down the odds boards trying to pick winners.

This week, I have narrowed down two longshots that I think the market is not giving a fair glance at for taking the trophy Sunday in the PGA Tour's Farmers Insurance Open. 

 

PGA Betting Picks This Week

Below, we take a look at a few golfers who could pay off as our favorite longshot bets of the week.

Max Homa

+7000, DraftKings Sportsbook

Yeah, I know… 70/1 isn’t exactly a very long shot in terms of golf outrights, but I also don’t want to write up somebody just for the sake of it. There aren’t many golfers down the board I could see winning, so we will start with Homa. He has the California narrative, which is nice, and he’s been vocal about feeling comfortable in his home state. He has had a mixed bag of success here, but his best outings have been the last two Farmers Insurance Opens (he missed the cut here at the US Open). His game is at his career best so I can write off his results at this course from early on in his career. He has the driving distance to contend as well as the accuracy with long approaches. His issue is typically around the green, which can be an issue at the South Course if he’s missing a lot of greens. Hopefully the irons and pure and he won’t have to chip many this weekend.

 

Charley Hoffman

+15000 Each-Way (1/5 odds, 6 places on the each-way), BetRivers

I wanted to make this bet last week before Hoffman withdrew, so why not try again? It’s not a blind wager, I do think there is value in the outright as well as the 30/1 odds we are getting for him to finish inside the top six as well. Before we even get to the model, Hoffman checks all the narrative street check boxes with solid course history, distance, and historically putting well on poa greens. The downside would be that we haven’t seen him play since Mayakoba, where he missed a cut. I’m not overly concerned about that – all golfers take time off in the winter and it’s hard to guess how anybody will start the season. That said, looking through past seasons, long term form should carry over the most. I believe Hoffman still has some gas in the tank, he fits the course, and we’re getting a great value on the each-way. 

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