One of the most fun aspects of betting on golf is the weekly opportunity to find edges all the way down the odds boards trying to pick winners.

 

Say you bet an each-way on a golfer who is 100/1 at both of those books, for $10. This would place a $10 bet on the golfer to win at 100/1 and a $10 bet at 25/1 to finish top 5 at FoxBet. That same wager at BetRivers would be $10 to win at 100/1 and $10 bet at 20/1 to finish top 6. A total wager of $20 is made. If you’re golfer wins, both the win and place are paid out. If your golfer doesn’t win but finishes inside the top 5 or top 6, you would be paid out the “place” portion of the wager. 

These wagers can be beneficial because you can get better odds for a top 5 or top 6 than what the book is offering on those individual place bets. 

PGA Betting Picks at the AT&T Byron Nelson This Week

Below, we take a look at golfers who could pay off as our favorite longshot bets of the week.

Keith Mitchell

75/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mitchell’s irons were fine last week but he was horrible OTT, which is rare for him, and I have to imagine not finding enough fairways when the field is playing lift-clean-place was detrimental at a course we already expected to have difficult rough. It was the first event since last June in which Mitchell lost strokes OTT, which makes it a bit easier to not dwell on and focus on the overall strength of his driving. From the fairway to pin he can be inconsistent but not often bad, quite simply not often stringing together good weeks with his irons and putting. He has a solid resume of finishes in 2022 despite not truly contending since last fall. At 75/1 the expectation of winning is small to begin with and even at my number of 52, that is only a win probability of 1.9%. It’s a stretch but they always are at this range in which we’re hoping to turn small edges to gains over an extended period of time. 

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Sebastian Munoz

95/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Munoz comes into this event having made seven straight cuts yet doesn’t have a T20 to show for it. So, while his recent form is nothing to brag about, he also isn’t playing poorly — it’s simply too pedestrian to have achieved a top result. Both recently and longer term, he’s has been one of the better golfers in this field, tee to green, largely due to his ball striking which we know by now holds form more than short game. Although not overly predictive on its own, the combination of his metrics is promising, and I think a number closer to 60 would have been more appropriate for Munoz. It feels like a lifetime ago since his lone victory came at the 2020 Sanderson Farms, but his play has been about the same since, occasionally flirting with the top of the leaderboard and hopefully we can catch fire in a bottle once again with Munoz. 

For all of my other picks, check out the Bet Tracker. If you’re not yet a premium subscriber, use promo code AXIS for 20% off, and join the fun, I look forward to chatting with you in the premium Discord.