No sportsbook offers more available Markets right now than William Hill with 83 players currently listed. Now, 83 players can’t go in the first round, so a lot of these players spill into Rounds 2-7. When numbers get that high, you have a lot of outs in either direction, but you also get a lot of mispriced players. I have talked a lot about how the draft provides a ton of positive expected value if you know what you are doing because you aren't competing with an algorithm, you are competing with sportsbooks essentially guessing and reacting to news, often slower than you are. While William Hill has adjusted some numbers on the day two and three guys, there are still multiple lines we can take advantage of.
The lowest St. Brown has been on a consensus big board is 74, and he currently sits at 64 on consensus big boards and 67 on The Athletic's consensus big board, which is 31 spots below his current total. He is frequently mocked in Rounds 2 and 3, rarely ever falling outside of the latter. He is an early declare with an 18 year old breakout age and 22% of the target share his junior season. His profile screams Day 2, his status in mocks screams Day 2, and his ranking on consensus big boards screams Round 2. This is an easy under bet.
The only concern is that some team falls in love with his speed and overdrafts him, as it was reported some scouts hand timed him in the 4.2s. Why scouts are still hand timing in 2021 is a topic for another day, but nonetheless, some of these boomers are still relying on their old ways. Schwartz didn't break out till his junior year and currently sits at 126 on consensus big boards, going in the third round or higher in just three of 35 industry seven-round mock drafts. While Schwartz has straight-line speed, he tested in the 18th percentile in change of direction and caught just 3 of 16 passes 20 or more yards down the field. This number is about 20 spots too high, so I will be betting he goes over the number.
I grabbed this number at 77.5, but it still holds value at 80. It simply is mispriced for the running back who is currently sitting at 104 on the Athletic's consensus big board. Sermon is much closer to a fourth-round pick than he is to a second-round pick, lacking upside in the passing game and any elite athletic traits. His profile screams Day 3. Another price that I will look to take advantage of here.