As we get closer to the NFL season, more and more props come out on the sportsbooks. Tuesday, DraftKings Sportsbook unloaded with not only star players but secondary ones as well. The biggest names often are the most bet props, but those lines are usually the sharpest as well.
I am looking at the secondary players whose lines are off significantly from FTN’s projections and where I have a player’s output for the season. Under may not be fun to root for, but when it comes to season-long player props, the money counts just as well and more often.
Here are three unders I am grabbing now.
Bet these NFL player props
Here is a look at my favorite betting props, specifically unders.
The more news that comes out of Jets camp, the bleaker it looks for Mims, who is currently running with the twos and sits at WR5 on the depth chart. The Jets made it a priority to improve the receiver position this offseason, signing Corey Davis and using the draft’s 34th overall pick on Elijah Moore, who ranked 16th on their big board. With Davis the unquestioned top receiver, Moore has been stepping up in camp and playing in both the slot and on the outside. Their other offseason addition was Keelan Cole — he may not be a big name, but the Jets gave him over $5 million and had reportedly tried to trade for him in back-to-back offseasons, and he is projected to play a lot more than the public thinks. They also decided to keep last year’s leading receiver Jamison Crowder as well. This is a lot of mouths to feed on a Jets roster than projects to have one of the lowest passing outputs in the NFL as Zach Wilson has a projected total of just 3,800.5 passing yards, the third lowest total. Too many things are working against Mims here; take the under.
In the last three seasons, no Seahawks tight end has eclipsed 350 yards, as the team has consistently rotated players at the position. While Jacob Hollister and Greg Olsen are gone, Will Dissly is sure to still steal snaps away from Everett, who signed a one-year contract in the offseason. While Everett is a talented pass catcher, FTN projects him for just 401 receiving yards this season 149 yards under his total. That big of a discrepancy on such a small number makes this an auto bet even before you break it down. The Seahawks want to run the ball more than last year and have an extremely concentrated offense with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett soaking up most of the team's volume on top of adding another pass catching in D'Wayne Eskridge in the second round of the draft. With a low passing output, shared playing time and a low spot on the volume pecking order, the under is the right side here.
Our current FTN Projections have Swift projected for just 661 rushing yard, 239 fewer yards than his current line. It is one of the largest discrepancies on the board and something worth taking advantage of. Yes, the Lions have improved their offensive line, but they still are +400 to have the worst record in the NFL and project to have some of the worst gamescripts in football. Swift is incredibly talented, but he will split time with Jamaal Williams, which will make it tough for him to have the workload needed to go over this number. On top of that, Swift thrives in the passing game, where the Lions project to use him more — if you are looking to take his over on something, his receiving line of 350.5 is far more appealing. While I like the talent of Swift, this is simply a bad number before you add in the attrition rate of running backs and how rarely any of them play a full season. Of the top 15 runners in the NFL last season only Derrick Henry played all 16 games. At a fragile position, on one of the worst teams in football, in a time share, you have to go under here.
Eliot Crist is the Chief Operating Officer of Fade The Noise. Formerly of TQE, PFF, and 4for4 Eliot has been playing fantasy sports for 18 years and betting on them for 12. the 2019 Pros vs Joes champion, Eliot has had success in both best ball and in DFS with seven career GPP wins. He makes frequent appearances on Sirius XM radio talking fantasy sports and CBS New York talking sports betting. Eliot contributes Season Long, Best Ball, DFS, and Betting NFL content and you can find him in our premium chat interacting with customers.