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Chris Meaney
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Jordan Poole Over 24.5 Points
(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Warriors are going with the mass rest day here, as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins will all be on the bench for this one. These are the Jordan Poole showcase nights and have been over the last year or so. The line is high, but my model has him closer to 27 points, and he easily carries upside for 30-plus in this spot.
Top Assists Prop
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 5.5 Assists
(-132, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s assist numbers have been down in general this year, but he is still averaging 5 assists per game thanks to a couple games with 8-plus. That is the upside Giannis has, and in a game with a 3.5-point spread, we should be able to get more minutes than normal for Giannis in what should be a competitive matchup.
Top Rebounds Prop
Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jarrett Allen is averaging 12 rebounds per game this season and now gets a matchup against one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, this game comes in with a 6-point spread, so we shouldn’t have to be overly concerned with Allen losing minutes in a blowout, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits this number by the third quarter.
Top Underdog Pick
Raptors Moneyline
(+140, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yes, Luka Doncic is playing at an elite level right now, and he might be extremely tough to beat, but this Raptors team is no easy task. Pascal Siakam is also playing at an elite level and this Raptors team has been top-10 so far this season in DEF and could get Fred VanVleet back here.
